Well the wait is finally almost over. Given the lacklustre share price performance of late, I would be perfectly happy with an in-line trading statement.
It would be a mistake IMO to regard an in-line trading statement as disappointing, because the new broker KBC Peel Hunt are holding fire on updating their 2004 and 2005 forecasts. They only need an in line statement to raise their ultra-conservaitve forecasts, and presumably get fully behind the share in terms of promoting it to their clients - which was the bit that Arbuthnot failed to do.
As we've been saying here for a long time, it's Institutional buying that is needed, not more private investors.
Risk/reward remains exceptionally good here I think. We've already had an in-line statement from November - I can't see how management would have put that out, unless they already knew that Q4 figures were in the bag.
Personally I'd be happy with 17p EPS or above for 2004, which would put us on a ludicrously low PER of 7.6
Moves in shares like FWY tend to be very rapid, and often unexpected, which is why personally I like to take a position for the long term, and just wait.
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