Euro Nickle


slapdash - Sat, 01 Jan 05 :

Currency - the major risk....

I'm trying to figure this one out...

A strong dollar depreciation is universally bad for this company....

costs are in Turkish lira and revenues in dollars....

So revenues go less far when reinvested in turkey as dollar worth less against lira..

And dollar revenues don't go as far when converted to pounds to give to investors...

However, a single Turkish lira appreciation only simply means that any revenues reinvested in Turkey don't go as far... Similarly for money raised... i.e. a strong pounds means people less keen to invest in UK... ongoing costs may also be higher if company has working capital in another currency and then converts it to lira as needed... i.e. a 20% lira increase means a 20% cost increase if the bank account is in sterling..

So big currency risk with this especially with Turkey becoming more developed/about to join EU / tipped as probably best investment zone in Europe... I.e. Lira may appreciate considerably...

Any thoughts??????? (i.e. is this analysis correct???)

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