blueforce if ('IF') gas is hit at Glantal - the potential is circa 6.2 Tcf - ok so it's based on something like 80-1 as you state reducing to 9-1 for circa 350 bcf
The estimate on EME finding 0.5 tcf and sharing the half of it at current prices of circa $6/1000 cu ft makes it worth circa £250m to them.
350 bcf possibly £175m.
Even a smaller find than this would make it very promising on a company with a present market cap of just £10m and a second much lower risk oil project in the USA..
An 80-1 odds of recovering 6.2tcf at Glantal would have a value of something like £3b. Not only that but a further 2.5tcf potential at the Lauteral prospect.
There are reasons to suggest that the siltstones may be an effective seal in their own right. The fact is it has never been tested. If the giant coal seams still retain some of the undisputed fact of the produced methane, which could still be sufficiently trapped, then even a moderate find of gas is very, very worth while.
It's a fairly normal drilling exercise. The biggest factor is the seal. Lets not worry about odds of 80 to one on finding 6.2 tcf gas. 6.2 tcf gas is not the over riding issue. It's about proving the quality and intactness of the seal - first and foremost, then worrying about how much gas could be recoverable after that - ie whether nothing, pockets, 50bcf - 350bcf at most or whether it has a chance of going beyond that. One step at a time.