Writz
The geology here is complex as are the corresponding risks. If you read the company's own propectus you will see that the risks you mention are identified by the competent person and assigned a value. I don't know how a geologist does risk analysis, but I know how it is done in my game and suspect it's much the same here. In which case each individual risk is identified and 3 point estimate (P10, P50 & P90) made for liklihood of occurrence based on known data, nearest neighbour etc. Having done this, monte carlo techniques are used to estimate the overall total risk. It is not perfect, but it is the best data available. I say again, the 80 to 1 probability for extracting the 6.2tcf is not my figure. It is EME's. Take a look at their prospectus document.
Downend
I woule like to believe you are right when you say that most investors have their eyes on eagle pool. But when I read the posts on this BB, that is far from my impression.
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