Re the 80-1 let me just air again the observation that odds are a lot less solid when there are few relevant comparables.
I think Tinjam will confirm that putting a probability figure on finding commercial quantities of crude oil on the basis of past drilling and seismics is a pretty refined art by now. At Glantal, though, EME are working on the basis of three absolute certainties:
(1) that anthracite is an efficient producer of CBM,
(2) that anthracite is present at Glantal in large quantities, and
(3) that gas production from the same anthracite strata in nearby areas has been documented.
Everything turns on the "seal" because the major UNcertainty is whether gas from the anthracite at Glantal has been able to accumulate rather than seep away.
The fact that the anthracite beds have slipped to a depth of 2km must in itself increase the chances of gas being trapped. Is the gas actually there? Well we don't know because nobody's bothered to drill into 2000m-deep anthracite before, and no body of knowledge has been built up from similar projects against which Glantal could be assessed.
Blueforce, I'm not knocking your point, but against that background, odds like 80-1 have the feel of a statistical formality. The technical challenges of making gas flow commercially from a deep coal deposit may be considerable; the chances that EME will "hit gas" in some way seem to me to be pretty good.
That said, as an investor, I'm with Zengas in seeing the bread-and-butter low-risk potential for profit in Eagle rather than Glantal!
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