Indeed Chopsy got a further 20k at 102 in VOG today and there is some serious potential there. £3 fair value discounted from £5 for 0.5tcf and nothing for the 2-300m barrels of condensate (if found). This will now be £4 fair value discounted from £6.65 as they just bought the remaining 25.2% of the field outright! Degolyer & MacNaughton have said at one well site alone (104) it could be as much as 2.3tcf which in itself would imply 4.6 times £4 = £18.40 and thats before any of the other wells are drilled - Potential could be £10 - £30 plus Kemerkol. It was Ambrian i believe who came up with the discounted £3.06 for 74.8% of the 0.5tcf find.
So here we are in a £10m mkt cap stock - ok it's risky on the gas front in Germany depending on seal quality, and an estimated 6.2tcf that could be there but at $6/1000 cu-ft or nearer $200/1000 cu-mts, a similar 0.5tcf find would value this little company on 52% of the German prospect at around £250m minimum.
Failing that, the less riskier Eagle oil prospect if successful in the US could value us closer to £30-£40m and most definitely not to be sneezed at and why i'm here - though i for one won't mind the hundreds who would appear chasing stock if there's a whiff of Glantal gas.
Who knows, this could be a spectacular gem for early 2006. The company after all wouldn't be chasing the German gas along with their fairly substantial institutional base (in from the placing at 35p) if they didn't think there was at least some chance of success in Germany.
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