DRAGON OIL, WE NEED GAS PRODUCTION NEWS

I can see the boot of Russia....

I dumped the lot today - £40k's worth @ 164p. Which is a major pisser as I've ben watching this for a long time, wanting to get in because this aside the situation was superb - a producing company in the Caspian - one of the biggest unexplored hydrocarbon basins in the world. And without today's news it was a farcically undervalued company.

But now an unforseen event in a country run by a benign(?) idiot, in a country rich beyond dreams in oil and gas, that happens to lie between Iran, Afghanistan and Russia. Well the benign idiot has just died, by fair means or foul.

Now what.

It's just got all the ingredients to turn into a horrible mess. Or it could be totally fine. It might. It really bloody well might.

But it might not. Taking the temperature of this area of the world on the cusp of '07, with six years of clod-fisted Anglo-American incompetence in foreign affairs behind us, and the cycle of US isolationism tiredly wheeling back into view (passing through "effective" for a microsecond on its way between the two tiredly familiar, moronic extremes)....

...well I steer towards not.

I honestly haven't a clue what will happen - and I really don't think anybody else has. Strategically this country is clearly of huge importance to the world, and politically it's as soft as a puff of gas. Foreign influence, benign or benevolent will be brought to bear, and count. But the clout of the West is roughly zero here, Iran is clever and Putin is a verrrry bad man.

If a strong character from the existing government can assert themselves I will reconsider. Right now though, it's become a gamble and ah'm oot. And I hated having to leave, the share price may do +/- a quid tomorrow, but the risk factor has just gone a good few notches higher.

Not trying to deramp at all - I have no short interest, just posting my paranoia in the hope of a counter-argument.