DOES ZOO LOOK LIKE A TEN BAGGER-CAN ANY OF YOU EXPERTS LET ME KNOW HERE PLEASE?

Consumers 'not ready' for HD upgrade

As the launch date for the next generation of optical disc approaches, Jupiter Research consultant Joe Wilcox has growing doubt about the readiness of consumers to take up a new disc technology, given that the current DVD format provides excellent pictures and sound.

The theory goes: DVD is a very successful format, loved by consumers – so the only way the industry can move consumers to an HD generation format is to give them compelling reasons to do so.

As Joe Wilcox, senior analyst with Jupiter Research, phrased it recently: "It has to do with how much better the new thing is than what people already have. There's a threshold of 'good enough.' Once you achieve that threshold, then the next new thing has to be so much better for people to move to it."

Many now feel that even if the whole industry went behind a single HD format, mass adoption would be very difficult to achieve. Disc replication machines need to be capable of producing existing and new formats as well as hybrid discs that allow customers to invest in high-def content – today! And even if they are holding off the actual purchase of a high-def player until some time in the future.

Wilcox believes that, whatever the outcome of the HD DVD vs Blu-ray battle, the victor or may find themselves having arrived too late for the party. "The greater implication is, none of this means anything," he says. "Right now, it doesn't matter which format wins, because the consumer market isn't ready for high-definition DVD."

He pointed out that neither side is ready to ship high-def players today; meanwhile, existing channels for high-def content have picked up customers at lower than anticipated rates. "So if people aren't picking the low fruit from the tree," Wilcox asked, "how are you going to get them to plant a new tree and grow some more fruit?"

Story filed 3 October 2005