I've done a bit more checking, and I see that the Investor's Chronicle on 9 December quoted forecasts attributed to the house broker Charles Stanley which are similar to yours:
Year to:
31/3/06 T/o £5.65m Ptp £1.52m Eps 4.31p
31/3/07 T/o £9.62m Ptp £3.23m Eps 9.19p
So I think we can assume that MI got their forecasts from Charles Stanley.
Hmmm, who do we believe? If Charles Stanley's much higher forecasts are more accurate than Numis', the shares are worth more than I thought and I would have to raise my target price.