Bigface,
If you wait for 2004 I think you'll get more than in 2002. That doesn't mean a handsome profit won't be made in 2002(Edit,I mean 2003).
Good or bad news in the offing?.
Here's some potential good news that doesn't need a lot of luck to happen.
Barbara is declared commercial,
Melville is a development,(It is already costed). The beauty of this is it also improves the field life and economics of Hudson.
Banff horizontaly well is successful.
Drum is a 50 million barrel field as Talisman suspect. Also improves economics of Claymore.
Goosander gets go ahead. Offset against tax until profitable.
Ghana well information is good. West Tano is a 50 million barrel field.
Mauritania is announced new oil province with development of Chinguetti announced.(How many north sea block equivalent do Dana hold? 160 by memory)
North of Penguin discovery is found to be connected to Penguin B as is considered possible at present. Dana announce their net recoverable is 15 million barrels.
There's more but that will do for now.
I don't know any prospective bad news. I have discounted future north sea production to 15,000 bopd which I consider is conservative. Production could disappoint but even then with bad news will be enough to cover NAV especially if hedged. imho dyor
bomfin