CSV - the run up to the Interim Resiults - 20th Sept

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vida - Fri, 23 Dec 05 :

Gryphon,

I have watched this company for a long time (about 2 years) when the debt was converted, therefore giving it some sort of future. I have no "inside" knowledge of the company. My initial error was to believe that there would be a trading statement this month, like last year, which has not arrived. I was moderately sure that if it was forthcoming, then it would have been positive. There has been nothing in the US to indicate that things are going badly there, so we have to believe that the statement relating to overall profitability in the US this year still stands. Uk is more problematic, but the management experience of the new management relates specifically to the UK and European market. Fortunately I have not bought many yet. I am however pretty confident of the outcome here - I gutted the accounts last time, and if your strip them down, the underlying performance is improving - in fact I was happy that t/o only reduced a little despite the increase in margins. This is not going to be a flyer, but the sort of share to put away (or be taken over, but I never buy on hope of a takeover). The major question is to know what the deal is with the manament - I think that this has been dealt with before. In truth, although it's tough for existing holders, I think that it seems to be more interesting on the risk/reward ratio. With the volume being so low, it gets marked down on virtually nothing.

The way I try to view it is that it's a better company at 8p than it was at 3p about four years ago. I hope that I am right in my analysis - I have been both right and wrong in the past, so dyor.


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