CRX - good times ahead

OK. Where am I going wrong with this?

Full year revenues at £2.7m, H1 at £1.4m therefore H2 at £1.3m - a decline of £0.1m Half on Half.

They claim that no customer makes up more than 15% of revenues - therefore the most that the deferral could be would be 2 months x 15% = under £75k ie. not going to rescue the picture.

They had £1.3m cash at half year. Assuming H2 costs = H1 costs, they'll have burned £500k+ of this, leaving £0.8m.

Even with a generous interpretation of the deferred 2 months, growth is flat Half on Half - and I don't see what will make it spike upwards again. "Announcing" an as-yet unsigned Japanese deal sounds a bit desperate to me? Nobody else seems to announce things until the ink is on the paper.

I can't see how the numbers support the idea of profit in 2006 - they need to generate a 50% increase off a currently flat curve.

I don't know what the minimum cash needed is for a business like this for working capital to keep operating? It feels like they're cutting it fine.

A constructive critical analysis of this argument would really help me.

JJ

PS. I have read most of the file - thank you - and disagree about the argument that the downside is limited: I don't believe that it's harder for a 10p share to go to 5p than for it to go to 20p or even 15p.