It will be interesting to see what effect the cutting of Russian gas to Ukraine has to companies like Cardinal, although such information of the effects may be hard to come by, perhaps waiting for trading updates or results from the companies concerned, eg. jkx, regal, etc.
I would have thought that domestic gas prices in Ukraine would harden (supply and demand), and the value of assets in the ground will increase. Also, opportunities for companies with money and Western know-how to operate fields in JVs will increase as the demand for home-grown gas increases.
What do you mean by "when Cardinal come to extend their licences later this year"? The RC field licence runs till 2024 and Bytkiv till 2015. The full production licence remains to be granted for the Rudis fields, although since Cardinal hold 100% of 3 of the fields, not sure gas price current situation will impact granting of full licence.
Again, not sure what affect on RC buy-back will be, as you state it may mean Cardinal paying more. If it is more, you'd think Cardinal's existing share of fields would be worth more too. It will be interesting to see what effect the situation has on broker estimates of reserves in the ground - I wouldn't expect them to be less valuable.