From memory, Turkmen is about half of their production. I dont think you should 'write off' all the Turkmen stuff, but I cant see any chance of a gas contract being agreed soon and that would have been the big upside.
Turkmen looks as though it will be in a power struggle between Russia and the West for quite a while. The deputy PM, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov ( a name to trip the tongue rather than trip off it!), has in true Soviet style been appointed head of the Funeral Commission. There are rumours that he is related to Niyazov, but he denies it - no idea what to make of that!