bright future for bgt

This is a bit long winded but I do not like ramping damaging a stock that I am heavily invested in so I feel new investors should have a balanced view of where the sp can feasibly go…imo and I do not profess to have all the answers...

Before 20p is breached it will need to be substantiated by some more RNS's imo. I'm not sure if TR doing well will be good enough unless they have already sold 100's of 1000's of copies which I do not think is the case. Come January, a good RNS to me would say that that all of the first batch of copies were sold, demand has required a further batch to be produced and that sales outside of the UK are also promising which exposes us to more than one market. I am not expecting BGT to say they have sold 150,000 copies although that would be great! A share price of 20p would indicate a market cap of just under £6.1M. Before we get to that stage (and stay there) BGT needs to show that it has regular revenue coming in – in my estimation, Tomb Raider alone can not support that level and neither can the original ASIC deal with Radica/Mattel. A new RNS detailing a new ASIC deal or an update on the Mattel one showing an increased commitment will be required before the next sustainable leg up is realised.

This could come at any time as could an update on what BGT intend to do with Bubble but I hold reservation that it will be tomorrow or next week etc so I don’t tell people it will since it sounds like I’m talking out of my hoop – those claims sound a bit like ramps and the more astute investors will no doubt be put off by such claims since they are usually followed by a downward spiral in the SP as rampers and the short term investors they enticed into the stock take profits/ get bored waiting and take losses…it has been posted before but the inevitable wind down from 28p is an example of where positive news was ramped to the high heavens and thus the wrong type of investors dipped their toes in…and the spike is thereby formed.

Dominic Wheatley is building a sound company here imo but it is not going to happen overnight – some lucky soles will no doubt buy in just before a massive RNS and see 100% on the day but for the majority, detailed research, a sense of perspective and patience is required.

I would love to see 20p+ now but in all seriousness, I would top slice at that level since without an RNS to give us more information, a £6M mkt cap is not sustainable right now, especially with a question mark surrounding bubble and how much TR is actually making…

Ian was right imo in one of his earlier posts where he suggested the mkt cap represents fair value with what we know right now – ramping at this stage does not do the share price or the long term holders of the company any good since the wrong type of investors are attracted due to the “spiking” pattern the sp follows. I have spoken to a number of investor friends today who have reservations of investing here despite the near 100% gains of late (or maybe perhaps because of these gains) because of the amount of ramping that they see posted on ADVFN and elsewhere. This is bad for the long term sp since these type of investors provide sound support since they are not tempted to sell too early and thus allow smooth north movement of the SP…

Regardless, I am of course very bullish on this company and this is without question an excellent start to the year for BGT, well done holders! If I am wrong and we do not have as many short term holders as I suspect, 14-15p could be the new base which is great considering where we were only 2 weeks ago.

Upside from here - Upon good RNS’s re TR, the new iDVD (and other iDVD’s), how we will continue to keep making money from Bubble and the ASIC developments, 20p will be cheap as you rightly say Ian – and barring further dilution I would expect to see 30 – 40p per share with iDVD being worth approx £3-4Mn (6 titles in production at around £500k for each), Bubble worth £1.5-3Mn (based on current market footprint and software requirements, intellectual property rights and stock) and ASIC related business worth approx £3-5Mn depending on how successful Mattel are with this new type of toy they are developing….There is a lot of educated guess work there and I openly admit to that but I am not just making this stuff up – it is all there in the RNS and a market cap of around £10Mn is easily achievable before 2007 is out if BGT gets a bit of luck… Good luck all!