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Monty Burns - Thu, 22 Dec 05 :

JP Morgan apparently have a 525p 'fair value' price target.

Errr, right. When these investment banking types come out with their downgrades after a fall (never before), it normally means they are calling the bottom and want to be buying the seller's holding, ready for a ride North.

Wonder what their assessment was back in 2000, when the price traded at the same level, with crude oil price, er, somewhat lower, and one or two more shares (2,653 million to be precise, per the BP website - or around 13%) were in existence. Replacement Cost Earnings per share in 2000 were 43.4 cents, or 9.4 billion dollars. 2005 (9 month) ytd are 70.07 cents, or 14.9 billion dollars - suggesting a full year, given current crude prices of, say, 88 cents per share.

So they're making over double the earnings per share they were in 2000, hurricane problems et al not withstanding - with the same share price as 5 years ago. And they still have them as 'fair value' being some 20% lower. Beggars belief, the behaviour of these investment banking muppets - do they do any 'sense' checks before releasing this stuff? Or are they just being more blatant in their motives?


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