Slapdash, I agree with your short-term forecast. But in addition there's:
- 10.3p EPS forecast for 2006 and a P/E of only 9.62
- a PEG of just 0.61
- cash of £3.4m against a £25m m/cap, i.e more acquisition possibilities?
- benefiting from the strength in the dollar in H2 2005 by around 10%
- world leader in its field
IMO there's no reason, assuming an imminent in line trading statement and results, why BDI shouldn't command a premium rating based on the above, especially once the City realises BDI has reduced its exposure to cyclicality.
A P/E of 15 would give a price target of 155p for, say, mid'06, i.e just before the interims are announced. Share price growth of 56% in a few months with (I believe) minimal downside is not to be sneezed at.