BLVN Bowleven (oil and gas) - new to AIM

Hi Papa,
It seems to be very common in the industry for drilling/testing to take longer than the original estimate. The joke is that four weeks of drilling time is roughly equivalent to six weeks of real time ;-) I think they're not really able to give a very accurate estimate until they deal with the realities, especially if it's a new play. It's worth noting, though, that the unsuccesful Manyikebi-1 well came in very quickly indeed - so when there was obviously no oil there they didn't mess around or delay the announcement.

I hold BLVN and increased after the last RNS, so obviously I'm optimistic. However, there remains a substantial risk that the well will not be commercial. There are possibly both good or bad reasons for extended testing. For example, it could be that first attempts at completion have been unsuccessful and they're trying further stimulation techniques, which would be worrying. Or it could be that they've had a kick and are having to deal with controlling it. Or it could be that the potential is so damned good that they're having to get new equipment in. I have no idea, and barely know what I am talking about! The risks remain higher than they might otherwise have been, I think, because the last RNS gave so little information. And it is somewhat worrying that the sp has remained depressed (one rather expects to have insider trading!).

So, I have seen reason to buy as an upside/downside bet but I have no inclination towards any further optimism or pessimism at the moment.

All the best & HNY,

Simon