Sure its always better to talk to someone face to face to guage their reaction, but largely at the end of the day you would be getting the same information (hopefully). As to being two months behind, the comepleting of Arce well will be Dec rather than Nov (not really sure if it would be price sensitive as its infrastructure rather than production/cash flow. Steaming will (hopefully) take place in Jan rather than December. The fundraising is likely to be for the steaming only at this stage, probably in the region of £1m at 1.4-1.6p or there abouts I would presume with todays share price. The increased price will occur upon the completion of Arce and the expected flow rates. When Arce finally materialises we will have a concrete value for the asset. Hopefully the 115,000 barrels expected from the steam flood pilot project will go some way towards the drilling of Baul. Lets not forget BLR have cash on hand at present. With the establishment of results of Arce etc the price should be somewhat higher than today (even 2p) to drill 15% of the Quad 22. The remaining cash requirements of £2m would go towards the drilling of this well, and most likely re-entering or drilling another Bukhara well and the SGB also at 15%. IMO some of the above will provide early cash flow (possibly pilot project Arce), followed by possible production from Bukhara and Baul.
Success on Quad 22 could bring in early funds and a dramatic re-rating. NS production takes a long time to bear fruit, but we have the stranded Watson field of proven reserves, another proven find on this quad and the price will respond. Oiexco have funded the development of Brenda + others and had only 120bod production. Large Candian companies are still keen to snap up undeveloped light oil reserves, especially in high infrastructure areas. Therefore, I would expect the initial placing to be in the short term to meet arce development requirements (this was suggested in the broker report too). A later fund raising/debt package will be required to fund the high level of activity in BLR's latest schedule. It is unlikely that we'll get a reserce report on Arce's recoverability until Arce 4 and 5, but if you take the 5-10mmbbls mean recoverable as a starting point you can assume that when it is reported we'll be higher than £5.8m. I don't think that its an unreasonable assumption to make that if we get success in the early stages of the work programme leading to production, we'll be trading and expecting a placing at a higher price than today's price.
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