I think you're right SCRUTABLE, but then you always have been. Or rather, the view you have has always been right - if you see what I mean.
The problem is, and always has been that it's very tempting to trade when excitement about what might be around the corner drives the price BUT real news could come at any moment and who wants to risk being out when that happens. I, for one find these psychology calls very hard. For those with the stomach money can be made short term as well as long.
On the 1.50 debate. Will you, won't you? The fact that opinion is divided just suggests that there will (happily) still be a market at that level just as there is now. Some holders will go and a whole bunch of new ones will arrive.