Balanced View: Intelligent Discussion of Market Trends
Hectorp - Sat, 01 Jan 05 :
I'm being a bit of a Cassandra today, For the poster who is looking forward to a gain of say 7.5% on the year to come for the FTSE stocks, why not take your profits in March if you can and come back for more later on. Why keep your money exposed in the FTSE for the next 12 months. I'd not expect FTSE to be over 5100 in December 2005. But at some points during Aptil to October 2005, I'd expect FTSE to be down considerably on today's 4805. Also, if you see FTSE down at 4300 in say, late September time, then you might buy your stuff back then, hoping for a view of 5000 by December.
If you seek reasonable profits for your risking your money, I'd not do it for 7.5%, in fact you have as good a chance of making a loss I believe. Maybe you'll do better investing 25% of your cash on the Japanese China and emerging markets Investment Trusts for example, for a larger likely return (IMO)... and leave 25% of your money in cash. In my case I'll be out of the ( UK and US stock) markets from May to October . Of course I'll play long or short on my return.
- Isn't it probable that the gains (long) to be had this year in the FTSE 100
stocks overall, will be gained between now and April. If you get your 7.5%, thats good money to make = to say 28-30% annualised.
