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Balanced View: Intelligent Discussion of Market Trends
hatman - Thu, 01 Jan 04 :
Been away for a coupla days; new years's celebrations etc... Do not currently have any positions, so still watching and waiting.
However, noticed the VIX now above 18.25. Interesting. I think this has now confirmed 14.75 as the final bottom spike. The players are upping the volatility premium, suggesting that confidence in a continued smooth upwards move is waning. Tomorrow I'll see if I can compare VIX/SPX with similar action in 1999/2000.
e
I'll be in Lille for the day on the 7th. Recommendations for restaurants (lunch) would be appreciated.
gf
Note your revised count. I believe this market will defy conventional analysis, and that the top will only be identified some time after the event. It's been confusing and misleading on the way up, and I suspect the way down will do likewise. I will look again when a day's plunge on good volume is confirmed by an equivalent upwards jump in the VIX (to the 21/22 area).
The more interesting area is, I think, the possibility of a medium recovery in the USD and an unexpected pullback in Gold to the $365 area. Also watching GBP/JPY for a completion of the three wave corective rally in the 191.8/193.4 area.
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