Balanced View: Intelligent Discussion of Market Trends
azalea - Thu, 01 Jan 04 :
The EU will cut interests rate in the order of 0.5% by end of Q1, as the weak pound and US dollar in particular continues to crucify exports. Unemployment will not improve notably in Germany and France during 2004.
Bush's re election chances will be significantly determined by voters actually experiencing that more jobs are being created as opposed to mere figures depicting growth in productivity and GDP. Hence US rates will not rise until the job market is seen to be notably improving.
The U.S. trade deficit will be reduced in 2004, even if it means raising taxes on imports of goods from China.
Indicators are telling us that the consumption of oil & natural gas is increasing on a global scale which along with a weak dollar should keep the average price of oil in 2004 around the $28 level. This sector will along with gold will be one of the few consistently strong performers in 2004.
Brown will succeed Bliar in the next General Election.
