Balanced View: Intelligent Discussion of Market Trends

all those factors are known variables,and the presidential election cycle is bunkum as far as i'm concerned.

if you look at the historical reasons for rises in the election years,little 'gifts' of tax cuts and/or rebates seem to be the order of the day.dubya gave his presents early by bringing them forward,and i believe the normal election year rally has consequently been brought forward 1 year on the back of these moves.

what has dubya got left in his locker ?not a lot imo.he has shot his bolt too soon,and with tax cuts economically not viable,interest rates at the bottom,and debt levels still way too high,there will be little the authorities can do when the economy slows.

the yanks are living in a current dream world,and will wake up within 2-4% of here imo.

the boom results expected for q4 have been discounted already and then some,and the rise today and probably until friday were and will be accompanied by tiny volume.

I believe,with the market technically dangerously overbought,that selling/shorting now has to be the sensible trade,with a retest at the minimum to 10k and 1032 likely.

kind regards

a bear waking up from hibernation.