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MIATA - Sat, 22 Oct 05 :

Yes, though I doubt the Saudis will gravitate to the French nor does the chart say to me we ought to be near a turning point - it looks potentially "gappy" down to 295p to me (I'm not saying that it will go there, just if the market were to fall there does not appear hard support at the present level). Whilst the chart doesnt say to me we ought to be near a turning point, obviously a new options month is a turning point.

UNCERTAINTY:
--Market direction in new options month will take a while to establish, can expect a little initial reluctance to commit funds to market so best guess some initial market downside before a sharp but limited up then real direction

--Decline in oil prices and more particularly gasoline prices, until "winter cold snap" forces refineries to focus on heating oil rather than gasoline, offers American market some (temporary) relief

POSITIVES:
--Bae continues to improve long term profitability
--Historically-high oil prices mean more buyers for new more fuel-efficient planes
--World doesnt appear to be in a "getting safer" phase, so demand for armaments is more likely to increase than fall
--Typhoon is getting a lot of praise
--Expect market to be pumped up to ensure Christmas bonuses

STRATEGY:
--Long term accumulate


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