Ashtead - Building on Powerful Rental Growth!

Year end ramble and very basic review
04 and 05, AHT a large part of a smallish share holding
04 15p to 77p year end and
05 77p to 180 p
so it was not too hard to make reasonable gains (shares previously bought at a higher price) during those 2 years. Managed to reduce the gain in 05 by selling a few below 180p.
06 180p to 158p, actually managed a gain, but it could should have been so much better if I had sold at 240 ish and not waited for another 10%. Perhaps not the only one in this respect. Anyway some sold on the way down, way too late and more annoyance with the way AHT handled things and then heavily re- bought at 143 ish which now looks good. While out of AHT Biotrace was a very pleasant surprise getting taken over just after buying, someone had the same idea on a larger scale.

Ramble over, where for the share price at the end of 07 and 08
As long as they do nothing too daft short term, the States (I am there now)like everywhere has some issues but nothing obvious that will dramatically reduce the need to hire plant.

To me the share price is what someone will pay for the company divided by the number of shares, I know there are graphs and NPV of future divi's but my probably over simplistic approach is what will someone pay for the whole business.
Use a 6 * EBITDA
06 (A) 213 m * 6 less 680 m debt gives 107 p / share
carry on in a very simplistic way, ignore debt change and just take average of broker forecasts
07 (F) 315 m EBITDA * 6 less 680 = 1210 / 559 m shares gives 216 p / share
08 (F) April 398 m EBITDA * 6 less 680 = 316 p / share

now multiplier could be 5 or 7

and debt could be correctly calculated etc.

But IF the integration goes OK 250 p ish at the end of next year and 350 p the following year looks realistic.

Obviously with something heavily geared great benefit when it goes well, but if they do not follow the plan it could go down rapidly again.

So I will keep holding for another year, maybe sell a few if they overshoot upwards.

note these are rambling and guesstimates of a complete amateur

happy new year folks

regards drectly