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ASC in 2004 : -------------- 20 - BAGGER! -----------------
Bluebelle - Tue, 20 Dec 05 :
Taurus,
I'm not sure what is eating you about this : I posted exactly what I think the current position is and why I am adopting the view - long term hold - that I do. I can't for the life of me see what's macho about that.
Let me repeat. No. I would not have got out had I known about the explosion. At close on the Friday ASOS was 77.5. If I had sold, I would been liable for 40% CGT as I am already over the limit for this year. Do the math. Work out the price I would have to be able to buy back at just to cover Gordon's share. Given that I believe, rightly or wrongly, that the price will be greater than 77.5 this time next year, and that in 5 years or so my investment in this stock will be worth over £500,000 net, what is the advantage to me in trying to second guess the market? Sometimes the best investment decision you can make is to do nothing. This is one of those times IMHO.
There's nothing macho about that. It's not deceiving myself. It's not wearing rose coloured glasses. It's a simple arithmetical calculation based on my view of the market. Don't forget, people were calling this over bought all the way up from 8p. Others of us took a different view. That's what makes a market.
Exactly the same thing will happen on relisting and I don't think the end result is as clear cut as you might think. I shall watch in comfort from the sidelines in the sure and certain knowledge that nothing fundamental about this business changed because a nearby site went up in flames, other than that management has been able to demonstrate that it can cope with a mega crisis.
Don't rule out, for example, the possibility that the relisting could be preceded or accompanied by an offer for the company at a premium to its previous close. What price the short postitions then ?
"If the whole warehouse had gone up in flames, no doubt you'd be delirious.... :0)"
Have you really sunk to these levels? I have never pretended other than that this is a major short term set back for the company, but one from which I believe it will recover. I repeat. Growth in internet shopping in the next 5 years has not been affected one iota by the explosion, neither, other than in the short term, has ASOS's ability to exploit that to advantage.
There you are. I've set out for you again my reasons for my position. If you don't accept them : no problem. It's my money to put where I see fit. And post re-listing what's in ASOS stays there.
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