Now that we can see B-M's reasoning, the main thing he is 'trying' to say is 'inflationary materials prices will soon damage the ecomomy by forcing manufactuers to cut back'. But: these same manufacturers are gearing up to another booming world growth year, Europe maybe a part! in 2006.
-Commodity prices nor their producers do not fall in non-recessionary times. Also, even in the early part of a recession, commodities , remain strong.
so go back and do some proper homework. Come back in 2008 with your story.