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SWalker - Thu, 29 Dec 05 :

Good link for those new to the story Carl.

Wezzy, you should understand that this story shows the direction, thought and thrust behind the PSA and the AEX link to the DPRK.

The DPRK were worried that dealing with a big company would leave them being the junior partner (not to mention the political problems that a big company could also bring along).

The acreage is far too big for AEX on its own at the moment. They need, due to their size, to stimulate interest so that they can bring in interested parties. The more parties that express an interest, the greater the competition and the better the terms that AEX can demand/achieve. To this end, it is in the interest of AEX to have the DPRK also marketing.

BTW, I know this from meetings with Brian Hall and the rest of the board/company.

The key to remember is that the PSA gives AEX, as I have said before, first call, 10% and 2.5%. It also gives them call upon Swiss Law to settle any disputes. It is not worth any company tying themselves up in Swiss Law for such a small amount.

What AEX want is to have some free carries on decent acreage till they can afford to go it alone with some of the best acreage. There is no way on earth that the prospects for DRPK alone is worth the current price. Estimates of 22b bbls for West Sea, a Sakhalin look alike in the East Sea - £47m, I think not....

As for Tanzania and Madagascar - OK, they are smaller but none the less they have real interesting geology. East Africa is becoming the new area of interest for good reason - look at Exxon with their quick farm in to the Sterling acreage for example, or the number of groups operating on Madagascar North of AEX. Egypt is small but its 10% for nothing in an area that again looks interesting.

I know that you are trying to be a healthy sceptic but I might suggest that you havent perhaps done as much research as some of us have done. Have you looked at the geology, the seismic, spoken at considerable length with the company, spoken to other companies that looked at DPRK or other areas where AEx is interested? I welcome the dissenting voice but I do have to express my concerns that your comments arent particularly well founded in fact.




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