Aminex: Charts & Fundamentals

Hello wezzy,

I suspect DPRK uses AEX like a sacrificial prawn in a chess game.

Obviously that is one possible view - though rather sophisticated for a DPRK whose knowledge of the international oil markets is approximately zero!

As for the various research pieces, well I always treat them with cautions. Especially nowadays, so many of these so called oil analysts have so little technical knowledge and expertise, it is really a joke to the outside world.

Well that might be so, but [to pick up the example they quoted] perhaps you'd like to put your own figure on what 30mn barrels of 2P reserves might be worth in a location sandwiched between three oil-hungry countries?? I'm perfectly clear that the value would approximate the current market cap [at about $2.70 or so per barrel].

AEX’s Tanzania acreage is a dog. They have drilled on it and the rock is as tight as concrete (judging by the fact they could not get even gas flow from it). Onshore acreages in Madagascar are not considered to be big oil or gas discovery territories and therefore the chances of AEX hitting it big in Madagascar is quite small. As for Kenya, more like another Tanzania.

Well we'll see about that. The new Ruvuma PSA is bang next to the Mnazi Bay gas field. The Madagascar acreage is reckoned to be some of the more prospective onshore stuff and has a couple of decades-old discovery wells [albeit probably non-flowing or gas]. So, if AEX is wasting its time in East Africa then the chances are that Exxon, Shell, Woodside and the others with acreage there are also pissing their money away?

A market capitalisation of c.£50 million for a small company that is unlikely to go anywhere fast is a risky punt.

.....a view, I suspect that you will come to seriously regret ;-)

ee