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emptyend - Thu, 29 Dec 05 :

Just a quick comment. Wezzy can't be faulted for that view on the recent deal - certainly it is a fair general assumption in such circs that the little guy will get screwed. However, the important "little guy" in this situation is DPRK itself, who are highly dependent on AEX's assistance to ensure that the Chinese don't screw them! There is insufficient information at present to see how this will play out exactly........but one thing is clear: the deal will trigger more of a scramble for other parts of the DPRK pie [before the Chinese grab the lot ;-)] - and the easiest way to get in will be to deal through Aminex, IMO.

As for the idea that £46mn overvalues Aminex, I'm afraid that is just miles off. As one of the research pieces on AEX pointed out, if they sell down to 30% stakes on all their acreage, a single find of 100mn bbls recoverable will be worth more than the current share price. So if they sell down to 40-50% [as I think is more likely] and look likely to make a single find [in the East Sea, say] of 700mn bbls+ [bearing in mind that some of the structures there are 80-90 square kms in area under closure], then you can figure that even the risked figure on such a prospect is likely to be worth the current share price on its own.....and obviously substantially more if tthey drill it successfully!

In addition, there is the strategic value of the potential of sitting on one of the last great undiscovered petroleum provinces*......DPRK has been so comprehensively underexplored that it might as well be virgin territory [apart from the fact that decent quantities of seismic have been shot in the last 8 years.....with some rather encouraging results ;-)]

*Just to be clear: I'm not insinuating here that DPRK will have Saudi type reserves......but it could be just as good as Mauritania, Kenya, Madagascar etc

emptyend


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