Agricola resources Ofex

My wife has held a few Agricola from it's ruby days and we never got round to selling them. I have bought a few over the last 4-5 months.

There have been a lot of positive statements made on this and other bulletin boards and also from tipsheets/sites (mainly out of the same stable). If that was all there was I would be very worried that the share was just being talked up. However, given the background of the larger shareholders I feel pretty confident that there is genuine substance behind the company.

Two reasons for posting:

- Trying to establish when we would know for sure that there is a company making deposit.

The frequent news releases are increasingly optimistic. Some of the projections being made on the BBs about the potential value assume that all aspects turn up trumps and I tend to discount those as either flights of fancy or at least needing substantial confirmation.
Keeping my feet on the ground it still sounds as if the prospects could turn this into a mutli-bagger. What are the steps that will now be gone thru and what will they each add to the risk/reward picture? What is the timescale for this? Will there be a few months pause as winter sets in?

- Trying to work out why the price has not risen much recently given the interest and the trading volumes. There is some stock coming from somewhere. Perhaps there is a distressed seller or someone who thinks the picture is not as rosy as it is being painted. Glenn posted an interesting suggestion:

'my thoughts are bruce might have an agreement.

as hes at 29.9% he cant buy any more without launching atakeover, but if he has an agreement he will match any buys at say 2.5p as he can buy them at 1p hes laughing.

his percentage will stay at 29.9%, but say for example he funds £30 000 worth he will make a nice profit

anything wrong with this logic'

I had a look thru the news and could not get all the info I wanted. However I roughly worked out (can't remember the calculation now) that Bruce Rowan had a slightly lower percentage holding than this and would have to purchase approx 4 million more shares to exceed 30%. If that is the case he would have some margin unless he had a vast number of warrants. Has anyone got a clear idea of his current percentage stake and the warrants he has outstanding?

If Glenn's theory is correct then the price could well be held back until the end of October. If not, there is likley to be some other reason for the sales.