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babble - Wed, 28 Dec 05 :

On copper, its not different this time, its the same as last time. Long cycles, and I wouldn't bet against copper for another 5 years or so.

Investment and exploration for new mining projects was neglected throughout the 1990's due to copper surpluses, and following the 1980's where commodities mostly fell. Now there's not enough supply, and growing demand.
Mines are being expanded, new ones are being set up, but it takes several years to increase supply. By the time supply has expanded sufficiently to halt price rises it will probably overshoot demand again; but in the mean time the price trend will be up.
(what you don't see properly on those earlier charts is how long copper stayed expensive).

If management are betting the company on falling copper prices, its going broke IMO. :-)


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