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A new start for Marconi 11
Andyble - Tue, 01 Jan 02 :
Um! Re post 975 - firstly, thanks for that, and curious as to the source. Not sure about some of those multiples, and little mention of what-if further long term debt is bought back. But, an immediate point to pick up on is that equity valuations depend upon a view very many years into the future, and not just the coming couple or so. I was pleased to see that what-if analysis of higher sales, but key to this sort of analysis is that a higher base is likely to imply the same going forward, plus growth. That growth of earnings, if brought into a fundamental DCF valuation, would provide a value per share far in excess of the numbers being quoted. In other words, if for example Marconi does break even in the shorter term, whilst perhaps sales are then projected to grow at say 10% to 20% pa for several years, then the share price would deserve a very fancy multiple on the emerging current earnings, as a result of the very highly geared play on sales recovery and the profile of the P&L account - this is precisely why I own the shares. I am betting on that sales recovery, and that what we are seeing now is a severe downspike in an uptrend of infrastructure sales. I am concerned though about the shorter term cash flow, and holding on to 35% gross margin. There is also the risk that sales may actually fall off a cliff - indeed it may feel just like that after the report in a couple of weeks - but the bet at this price still feels pretty good to me. I believe that Marconi's sales will be at twice the break even level within a few years, and that the share price will reflect that well before.
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