National Credit Default Rates Increased in October 2012 According
to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices
NEW YORK, Nov. 20, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Data through
October 2012, released today by
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian
Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes
in consumer credit defaults, showed that most loan types saw an
increase in default rates during the month. After nine consecutive
months of declining default rates, the national composite increased
to 1.55% in October from 1.46% September rate. The first mortgage
default rate increased from 1.36% in September to 1.47% in October.
Auto loan and second mortgage default rates moved up from 1.11% and
0.64% in September to 1.14% and 0.65% in October, respectively.
Bank card default rate posted the lowest post-recession rate of
3.68% in October; it was 3.70% in September.
"After three quarters of declining consumer credit default
rates, national composite increased in October," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman
of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Overall
consumer credit quality remains healthy. Looking across our 10
headline indices, all are at levels typical of the pre-crisis
period of the early 2000s. Only one – bank card – shows
default rate above 2.5% and even that hit the recent low, which is
close to its eight-year historic minimum."
"The national composite posted 1.55% in October, 9 basis points
above the previous month's rate. This change was mostly driven by
an increase in the first mortgage default rate, which posted 1.47%
in October, 11 basis points above September's level. The auto loan
rate is 3 basis points up from September; it posted 1.14% this
month. The second mortgage is marginally up by 1 basis point from
its September rate of 0.64%, the lowest rate in its eight-plus year
history. Bank card was the only product line that decreased in
October. It hit the new post-recession low of 3.68%, down by 2
basis points from the previous month.
"Three out of five cities we cover showed a decrease in their
default rates; and two of them hit the post-recession lows –
Chicago and Los Angeles. Chicago's rate was 1.78% in October, down from
1.82% in September. Los Angeles
saw a third consecutive monthly decrease, marginally down to 1.44%
in October, from September rate of 1.45%. Miami's rate fell to 2.44% in October from
2.48% in September. New York's
October rate was 1.35%, 7 basis points up from September.
Dallas's rate increased the most –
its 1.26% October rate was up by 23 basis points from September's
rate; and it still remains the lowest default rate of the five
cities we publish."
The table on the next page summarizes the October 2012 results for the S&P/Experian
Credit Default Indices. These data are not seasonally adjusted and
are not subject to revision.
S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default
Indices
|
National Indices
|
Index
|
October
2012 Index Level
|
September 2012 Index Level
|
October
2011 Index Level
|
|
First Mortgage
|
1.47
|
1.36
|
2.08
|
Second Mortgage
|
0.65
|
0.64
|
1.29
|
Bank
Card
|
3.68
|
3.70
|
4.85
|
Auto
Loans
|
1.14
|
1.11
|
1.22
|
Source: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices
|
Data through October 2012
|
The table below provides the S&P/Experian Consumer Default
Composite Indices for the five MSAs:
Metropolitan
Statistical Area
|
October
2012 Index Level
|
September 2012 Index Level
|
October
2011 Index Level
|
|
Chicago
|
1.78
|
1.82
|
2.64
|
Dallas
|
1.26
|
1.03
|
1.30
|
Los
Angeles
|
1.44
|
1.45
|
2.15
|
Miami
|
2.44
|
2.48
|
4.16
|
Source: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices
|
Data through October 2012
|
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ET. They are constructed to accurately track the default
experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto,
bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien. The Indices
are calculated based on data extracted from Experian's consumer
credit database. This database is populated with individual
consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian
every month. Experian's base of data contributors includes leading
banks and mortgage companies, and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from
11,500 lenders.
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