By Saabira Chaudhuri
Boeing Co. (BA) said it expects air carriers in North America
will take delivery of 7,290 new airplanes over the next 20 years at
a market value of $820 billion.
Taking retirements of airplanes into account, the aerospace
group said the North America fleet will grow 33% to about 8,830
airplanes by 2031.
"The North American commercial aviation market is about to
record a third consecutive year of profit, with modest passenger
traffic growth," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing
for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The long-term outlook for the
North American airline industry is approximately 3% annual traffic
growth through the forecast period."
He added the market is "shaped by aggressive growth of low-cost
carriers and the need to replace aging airplanes in the fleets of
the established network carriers."
Boeing said it expects the network carriers to maintain strict
capacity discipline, while low-cost carriers will continue to
outpace network carrier growth to accommodate increased demand and
fill some markets abandoned by network carriers.
The company also estimates that single-aisle airplanes will grow
to 69% of the total North America fleet by 2031, and that long-haul
international traffic to and from North America will grow at an
annual rate of about 5%.
It said international growth is primarily driven by anticipated
passenger traffic to Southwest Asia, China, the Middle East, Africa
and South America, and that passenger traffic between North America
and those regions is forecasted grow at or above 6% per year.
This growth in the long-haul segment is expected to result in
demand for an additional 1,320 new fuel-efficient, twin-aisle
airplanes such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
Boeing also said large airplanes--those that are of the 747-size
and larger--will not see significant demand in North America, with
only about 40 airplanes, or 1% of the total investment.
Write to Saabira Chaudhuri at saabira.chaudhuri@dowjones.com
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