By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch Weak Black Friday sales could
hit retailers
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures were pointing to a
lower open on Monday, as traders return from holiday to a string of
dour headlines.
Commodity prices fell sharply after downbeat data from China,
only to recover by the morning in the U.S., while weaker Black
Friday sales weighed on retailer stocks.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJZ4) fell 62
points, or 0.4%, to 17,750, while those for the S&P 500 index
(SPZ4) dropped 9 points, or 0.4%, to 2,057.20. Futures for the
Nasdaq-100 index (NDZ4) dipped 14 points, or 0.3% to 4,324.
Energy stocks were braced for more volatility as WTI
Intermediate(CLF5) and Brent crude oil prices slid as much as 2%,
before bouncing up, as last week's OPEC decision to maintain
production levels continued to rattle markets. WTI slid 14% last
week and 18% for November, the biggest one-month fall since
December 2008.
All the big premarket decliners were oil-related, with Oasis
Petroleum Inc. (OAS) off 12% and Clayton Williams Energy Inc.
(CWEI) losing 11%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed down 0.3% on
Friday, with the energy sector providing the bulk of the
losses.
Murray Edwards, chairman of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and
one of Canada's biggest oil investors, predicted Friday that oil
prices could collapse to $30 a barrel before stabilizing at between
$70 and $75, according to Canada-based Financial Post.
Gold(GCG5), swung wildly in the aftermath of Swiss vote to
reject a plan to force the Swiss National Bank to ramp up its
holdings of the precious metals. Gold futures fell as much 2%, but
rebounded to trade slightly higher. Silver (SIZ4) also rebounded
and was 1.7% higher, after suffering an even bigger fall.
"These lower commodity prices should be a major advantage to
commodity consuming countries, but the growing threat of sovereign
default among oil producing nations has introduced an unwanted
element of risk to global financial markets," said Rebecca
O'Keeffe, head of investment at stockbroker Interactive Investor,
in a note. Read: Why the stock market may need help from Santa
News out of Asia wasn't good either. Two separate gauges of
Chinese factory activity indicated manufacturing had lost momentum
despite a recent cut in interest rates. Then Moody's downgraded
Japan to Aa3 from A1, citing uncertainty that the country will meet
its fiscal goals and be able to grow its economy.
ISM and Black Friday sales: Data for Monday includes ISM
Manufacturing at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, and ahead of that, Markit
PMI, both for November. A fairly busy week of data will end with
nonfarm-payrolls data on Friday. See Economic Preview
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley
will speak at Bernard M. Baruch College at 5:15 p.m. Eastern Time,
while Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks at 5:30 p.m. Eastern
Time at a symposium on the 100th anniversary of the Fed.
Retailers such as Wal-Mart Inc. (WMT), Target Corp. (TGT) and
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) could see action, after retail spending over
the Thanksgiving weekend fell 11%, the second straight annual
decline, according to the National Retail Federation. Analysts will
be watching to see how sales fare on Cyber Monday, which is one of
the biggest online shopping days of the year.
Overseas markets: The FTSE 100 index recouped some of the steep
losses as oil and mining-related stocks tracked volatile commodity
prices, while European markets were under pressure too. With the
exception of a gain for the Nikkei 225 index . Asian stocks were
battered by falling oil prices and worse-than-expected outcome for
those Chinese manufacturing surveys. The Australia's S&P ASX
200 index slid 2%, dragged by energy stocks. The dollar(USDJPY),
eased as commodity prices rebounded.
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