By Scott Patterson 

SANTIAGO--Copper producers and industry observers gathered here for a global conference say prices will rebound from near five-year lows.

But few agree on when.

Copper has taken a beating since its price hit record highs around $10,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange in 2011 on supercharged industrial growth in China. While copper prices have recently rebounded from lows just north of $5,000 a ton to $6,000 a ton, they remain 40% below the highs reached in 2011.

The prices have stayed stubbornly low despite what company executives and analysts say are solid fundamentals--a supply constrained by naturally degrading ore quality and demand that is expected to only increase as the world becomes more connected and urbanized. The electricity conductor is used in wiring and piping, and is seen as a barometer of global economic health.

"The world is on the edge of a new metals age, with copper at its center, " Jean-Sebastien Jacques, chief executive of Rio Tinto PLC's copper and coal unit, said in a speech Tuesday at the annual World Copper Conference here in Chile, the world's largest copper producer.

Mr. Jacques is less upbeat in the short term. He said in an interview that he doesn't expect copper demand to match supply until at least 2017, if not later. That could keep a lid on prices until traders get more evidence of a meaningful uptick in demand.

Others see demand outpacing supplies much earlier.

Vanessa Davidson, director of copper research and strategy for CRU Group, a commodity research firm, said in a speech that demand could outpace supply by the end of 2015, driven by relatively strong demand in China. The country's State Reserve Bureau often steps into the market when prices are low, and that, along with some short-term supply constraints, by year-end could push the market into a "deficit" -- a situation in which supplies are lower than demand.

Ms. Davidson also pointed to a big drop in projections for new copper projects in the last six months as prices slumped. The number of new copper mines in the global pipeline plunged to 19 in April, down 30% from 27 projects in October, she said. That means supplies over the next several years aren't likely to be as robust as previously expected, she added.

Not everyone sees a bright future for copper. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Max Layton said that with Chinese steel demand tailing off in the past six months, copper will be "the next shoe to drop.

"It's just a matter of time," he said, projecting that copper is likely to fall to $5,200 a ton by year-end, with risks "heavily skewed" to the downside.

In Chile, which produces one-third of the world's copper, there is a variable working in the metal's favor: a constraint on supplies because of climate and labor problems. Water shortages in part because of an eight-year drought have crimped production at some Chilean copper mines.

Iván Arriagada Herrera, chief executive of Chilean mining company Antofagasta PLC's mining unit, said in an interview at the company's Santiago headquarters that "external shocks" such as labor unrest and mining community issues have crimped output at its Los Pelambres mine. The company has said that protests at the mine earlier this year, which were largely over water issues, cut 8,500 tons of copper production.

A wild variable for copper prices has been an emerging interest from Chinese hedge funds, according to analysts. Trading at hours when an influx of short bets could have an outsize effect, Chinese funds were likely "the drivers behind the dramatic move of the world's most important industrial metal," Macquarie Research said in a note in February.

Those bets were likely behind two big daily drops in copper's price in mid-January and then in February, Macquarie said. One Shanghai-based fund noted for having a large number short bets, Shanghai Chaos, declined to comment.

Still, analysts said copper was likely to rebound over the long run. Mr. Jacques of Rio Tinto said the metal would be needed for the world-wide migration to cities, which he said means "more buildings, more buildings mean more infrastructure."

That outlook makes copper stand out among commodities. Iron ore--also needed for industrialization--likely won't see a price recovery soon because producers such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton have flooded the market, analysts say. Oil prices have rebounded some since bottoming in January, but with North American drillers developing new ways to respond to low prices, the outlook for crude is mixed.

The big question for the copper industry and investors is when that important shift will take place.

Write to Scott Patterson at scott.patterson@wsj.com

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