EARNINGS PREVIEW: Weak Selling Season Weighed On Builders' 2Q
July 18 2011 - 1:59PM
Dow Jones News
TAKING THE PULSE: U.S. home builders' hopes for a strong spring
selling season were dashed again in the second quarter, as the
multiyear housing slump continued depressing sales.
Home buyer traffic remains at anemic levels, with buyers still
stuck on the sidelines. Bargain-priced foreclosures remain stiff
competition for builders, while would-be buyers are getting stung
by strict lending standards.
In recent months, builders have also faced tough year-over-year
comparisons because of last year's federal home-buyer tax credit.
The offer of up to $8,000 pulled many sales forward, severely
depressing this year's counts.
Indeed, Los Angeles-based KB Home (KBH) last month reported that
its second-quarter revenues and the number of homes delivered both
fell by nearly 30%.
The tax offer expired last summer, so comparisons should return
to more normal levels in coming months.
There's also nascent optimism that, as the inventory of
foreclosed homes dips, more new homes will sell. Plus, the group
has dramatically curbed construction in recent years, resulting in
a low inventory that some industry watchers warn could lead to a
shortage should consumer interest heat up.
"Housing should continue to stabilize and slowly recover over at
least the next 24 months, and the builders are well positioned to
take advantage of an upturn," wrote Michael Rehaut, a J.P. Morgan
home builder analyst who is quite bullish on the sector, in a
recent client note.
Monday, the National Association of Home Builders trade group
said its closely-watched housing market index climbed two points to
15 in July, one point more than expected. For now, at least, "the
market continues to bounce along the bottom," David Crowe, NAHB's
chief economist, said in the index release.
For how long, of course, remains to be seen.
COMPANIES TO WATCH
NVR Inc. (NVR) - Expected to report Thursday
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters
expect earnings of $6.22 a share on revenue of $683 million. A year
ago, NVR reported net income of $11.13 a share and revenue of $947
million.
Key Issues: That's right, NVR could earn money. But NVR, the
largest builder by market capitalization, isn't your traditional
operator. It has a risk-averse culture that avoids land ownership
and the industry's fastest home-construction turnaround time. It
has also generally shied from the boom-to-bust markets of southern
California, Nevada and Arizona, making it a standout in the
troubled sector. Still, the projected year-over-year revenue
decline shows the builder has not escaped the turmoil
unscathed.
D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) - Reports July 28
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts project a fiscal
third-quarter gain of $0.06 cents a share and revenue of $987
million. A year earlier, DR Horton made $0.16 a share on revenue of
$1.4 billion.
Key Issues: D.R. Horton, one of the sector's largest builders,
sells to many first-time buyers, a crowd that was largely tapped by
the tax credit. That could weigh on results. On a bright note,
Horton is experimenting with "micro homes"--two-bedrooms that
measure just 687 square feet--where buyers can live a car-free
lifestyle. With gas prices around $4 a gallon, these homes priced
from in the $100,000s will undoubtedly attract consumers looking
for something different.
Meritage (MTH) - Reports July 29
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts anticipate a loss of $0.04 a
share on revenue of $204 million. That's down from last year's
profit of $0.13 on revenue of $291 million.
Key Issues: Meritage is betting big on green: Its homes are
among the sector's most ecologically friendly. The company is
betting that penny-pinching buyers will be enticed by electric
bills cut by features including solar power, tighter insulation and
energy-efficient windows. Studies have shown that the green homes
generally outsell competitors two-to-one. "It gives us an advantage
over homes that don't have those features," says Brent Anderson,
vice president of investor relations.
(The Thomson Reuters estimate and year-ago net may not be
comparable due to one-time items and other adjustments.)
-By Dawn Wotapka, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2193;
dawn.wotapka@dowjones.com
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