EARNINGS PREVIEW: US Home Builders' Pain Dragged On In 1Q
April 18 2011 - 2:05PM
Dow Jones News
TAKING THE PULSE: U.S. home builders struggled to sell homes --
and make money -- in their first quarters as the sector's multiyear
slump drags through the all-important spring selling season.
Homebuyer traffic and sales remain at anemic levels.
Bargain-priced foreclosures continue posing stiff competition for
builders, while would-be buyers are being stung by strict lending
standards. Consumers remain jittery that home values have further
to fall.
Monday, the National Association of Home Builders trade group
said its closely-watched housing market index slipped one point to
16 out of 100 in April.
There's no relief in sight: The "selling season is coming in
below expectations," notes David Goldberg, a UBS home-builder
analyst. "We expect the index to remain constrained over the next
few months."
Builder KB Home (KBH) earlier this month provided a glimpse
about what to expect from its peers in upcoming weeks: Its fiscal
first-quarter loss widened sharply as plunging orders fueled a
steep revenue drop and charges weighed on the bottom line.
The "operational results were shockingly disappointing," wrote
Stephen East, a builder analyst with Ticonderoga Securities, on
April 5. "All the headway made during 2010 appears to have been
tossed and the bar reset back one year."
To be sure, there are reasons for optimism. The glut of unsold
homes that forced six-figure markdowns during the sector's crash
has been reduced, leaving a manageable supply. Builders remain
flush with cash -- some boast cash hoards topping $1 billion.
And to prepare for recovery -- which has been pushed out to next
year -- they are slowly buying new land lots and jump-starting
construction in stalled communities. Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH)
recently announced an entrance into the Raleigh, N.C., area -- its
first new market since 2005 -- while M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) announced
the acquisition of a small Texas builder.
COMPANIES TO WATCH
NVR Inc. (NVR) -- expected Wednesday
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters
expect earnings of $4.68 a share on revenue of $530 million. A year
ago, NVR reported net income of $5.01 a share and revenue of $577
million.
Key Issues: You read that right -- NVR could earn money. But
NVR, the largest builder by market cap, isn't your traditional
operator. It has a risk-averse culture that avoids land ownership
and the industry's fastest home-construction turnaround time. It
has also generally shied away from the boom-to-bust markets of
southern California, Nevada and Arizona, making it a standout in
the troubled sector.
PulteGroup (PHM) -- April 28
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts anticipate a loss of $0.13
cents a share on revenue of $813 million, compared with the
prior-year loss of $0.03 cents a share on revenue of $1
billion.
Key Issues: Analysts continue watching the 2009 acquisition of
Centex Corp. play out, becoming more convinced the sector giant
jumped too early and overpaid. At the time, the company touted the
benefit of cutting overhead costs and entering new markets. But the
housing market has taken much longer to heal than expected,
weighing on Pulte's performance.
Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF) -- April 28
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts anticipate a loss of $0.02 a
share on revenue of $137 million. That matches last year's loss of
$0.02 on revenue of $175 million.
Key Issues: StanPac remains the industry's maverick: While other
builders focus on entry level, it builds move-up homes. Competitors
are buying small parcels of land here and there, securing it via
option rather than paying outright. Standard Pacific, meanwhile, is
spending hundreds of millions of dollars on land -- some of it
undeveloped -- betting it will benefit as land and housing values
increase.
D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) -- April 29
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts project a loss of $0.04 cents
a share and revenue of $756 million. A year earlier, DR Horton made
$0.04 a share on revenue of $914 million.
Key Issues: D.R. Horton, one of the sector's largest builders,
sells to many first-time buyers, a crowd that hasn't been out in
full force lately. That could affect results. On a bright note,
there might be some bragging on the earnings call -- Horton beat
Pulte for the nation's top builder spot by number of completed
annual sales. Last year, Horton closed on 18,983 homes compared
with Pulte's 17,095.
(The Thomson Reuters estimate and year-ago net may not be
comparable due to one-time items and other adjustments.)
--By Dawn Wotapka, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2193;
dawn.wotapka@dowjones.com
Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH)
Historical Stock Chart
From Mar 2024 to Apr 2024
Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH)
Historical Stock Chart
From Apr 2023 to Apr 2024