EARNINGS PREVIEW: US Home Builders Have Hopes For Spring
April 22 2010 - 3:54PM
Dow Jones News
TAKING THE PULSE: U.S. home builders, who have battled a
multiyear slump, are convinced they've turned a corner.
They're cash-rich, thanks to hoarding money and generous tax
refunds. That's letting them reload on land, enter new markets,
restart stalled communities and, in some cases, hire staffers,
something that hasn't been done since the crash.
As several large builders report in coming weeks, analysts and
investors are particularly interested in the key spring selling
season. The federal tax credit, offering buyers up to $8,000, is
set to expire later this month. So far, it doesn't seem to have
created a surge in deals.
"The spring selling season is not coming up all roses," Susan
Berliner, J.P. Morgan's fixed-income analyst, wrote in a client
note. "Our expectations are now a bit more muted for 1H10 as many
noted that the buyer credit did not have a material impact on their
sales."
Meanwhile, the usual headwinds continue. Unemployment remains a
stubborn issue, worrying would-be buyers, while the foreclosure
crisis drags on.
Several builders have provided a glimpse of what to expect:
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) saw an earnings improvement helped
by lower land-related charges. Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF) this
week said it narrowed its loss substantially.
COMPANIES TO WATCH
Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH)--reports April 28
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters
expect a loss of 14 cents a share on revenue of $198 million. A
year ago, Meritage reported a loss of 60 cents a share and revenue
of $231 million.
Key Issues: Meritage earlier this month preannounced earnings
results, saying the federal tax credit didn't impact sales as much
as hoped. The builder expects to report about $201 million of
closing revenue on 808 homes with an average price of about
$248,000.
DR Horton (DHI) - April 30
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts project a loss of a penny a
share and revenue of $862 million. Horton's year-earlier loss was
34 cents a share on revenue of $775 million.
Key Issues: Horton has been quiet lately, focused on selling
homes and, eventually, rising from the No. 2 builder spot. Horton
is known to build speculative homes, or ones without a buyer in
mind. As with all builders, that could prove a problem should the
homes not sell.
"We remain concerned the tax credit has driven overbuilding and
will eventually result in discounting to sell excess inventory.
Although most of the builders have limited new construction and are
now more focused on rebuilding margins...it would only take a few
bad apples to spoil the bunch, thereby limiting home price
appreciation," UBS analyst David Goldberg wrote in a recent client
note.
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) - May 5
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts anticipate a loss of 23 cents
a share on revenue of $1.2 billion compared with Pulte Homes'
prior-year loss of $2.02 a share on revenue of $587 million.
Key Issues: PulteGroup, which just changed its name from Pulte
Homes, is now the nation's largest builder, following its
acquisition of rival Centex Corp. last year. Analysts continue
watching the deal play out, wondering whether Pulte's acquisition
signaled the bottom of the housing slump and whether Pulte will pay
dearly for the mega deal.
They also wonder whether its attempts at branding will transform
it into a household name in an industry where most of the inventory
looks the same.
(The Thomson Reuters estimate and year-ago net may not be
comparable due to one-time items and other adjustments.)
-By Dawn Wotapka, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2193;
dawn.wotapka@dowjones.com
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