Oliver Wyman Announces the Release of a Comprehensive Fact Base to Support Dialogue Between Industry & Policy Makers on Regul...
October 04 2016 - 5:03PM
Business Wire
A report published today by global management consultancy,
Oliver Wyman, analyses Brexit’s potential impact on the UK-based
financial services sector. Commissioned by TheCityUK and developed
with input from its Senior Brexit Steering Committee, senior
industry practitioners, and the major trade associations, the
comprehensive analytical toolkit enables quantification of the
impact of potential regulatory options arising from Brexit in terms
of jobs, tax and industry revenues.
It estimates that a Brexit where the UK is outside the European
Economic Area but delivers passporting and equivalence – allowing
access to the Single Market on terms similar to those that UK-based
firms currently have – will cause only a modest reduction in
UK-based activity. In this scenario, revenues are predicted to
decline by up to £2BN (2% of total wholesale and international
business), 4,000 jobs would be at risk, and tax revenues would fall
by less than £0.5BN per annum.
Under conditions where the UK moves to a third country
arrangement with the EU, without any regulatory equivalence and its
relationship with the EU is defined by terms set out under the
World Trade Organization, up to 50% of EU-related activity (£20BN
in revenue) and an estimated 35,000 jobs could be at risk, along
with £5BN of tax revenues per annum.
When taking into consideration the knock-on impact to the whole
financial services ecosystem – the possibility of shifting of
entire business units, or the closure of lines of business due to
increased costs it could almost double the effect of Brexit.
Sir Hector Sants, Vice Chairman, Oliver Wyman, says: “Our work
provides a robust and definitive fact base to facilitate the
dialogue between the sector and policy makers. It highlights that
the impact of the UK’s exit from the EU on the UK-based financial
services – and the jobs, income and taxes it generates – will vary
dramatically with how much access to the EU is retained.
“It is in everyone’s best interests for there to be a positive
outcome to the negotiations that is mutually beneficial to the UK
and the EU, causes minimum disruption to the industry and benefits
customers who have come to rely on the UK as a uniquely skilled and
connected ecosystem for financial services.”
About Oliver Wyman
Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting. With
offices in 50+ cities across 26 countries, Oliver Wyman combines
deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy,
operations, risk management, and organization transformation. The
firm's 4,000 professionals help clients optimize their business,
improve their operations and risk profile, and accelerate their
organizational performance to seize the most attractive
opportunities. Oliver Wyman is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh
& McLennan Companies [NYSE: MMC]. For more information, visit
www.oliverwyman.com. Follow Oliver Wyman on Twitter
@OliverWyman.
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Oliver Wyman Media:Gregor Ridley, +44 7342
053449Gregor.ridley@oliverwyman.com
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