Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) forecast a key profit measure could rise by as much as 17% in 2014 as the defense contractor continues an efficiency drive to counter the impact of a second year of flat or declining sales.

The guidance came Thursday as Lockheed reported fourth-quarter profit fell 14% to $488 million, falling short of expectations for the first time in three quarters, and weighed by restructuring and other special charges as revenue dipped 4.7%.

Lockheed forecast full-year sales will be between $44 billion and $45.5 billion in 2014 compared with $45.4 billion last year, but per-share profit from continuing operations is seen at $10.25 to $10.55, an advance from last year's $9.04.

The initial guidance from the world's largest defense contractor by revenue follows a stabilizing outlook for U.S. military spending over the next two years, though concerns are emerging about the robustness of overseas business that many companies are chasing. Canada recently canceled an army vehicle program, and a number of deals with Middle East nations are taking longer than expected to complete.

Lockheed's leading position in relatively well-funded defense contracts such as the F-35 fighter jet and missile-defense programs, and a focus on expanding sales opportunities in the Middle East and Asia, has helped insulate it from the downturn in military spending on weapons and services. The stock gained more than 50% last year, aided by an increased dividend and expanded share-buyback program.

Chief Executive Marillyn Hewson, who took over last January, said in a statement that the company would continue to focus on boosting efficiency and cutting costs. Lockheed announced plans in November to shed 4,000 workers, taking the total number of job losses over the past five years to 30,000.

The efficiency drive has led to record margins, with all five of its business units matching or beating their prior-year performance in 2013, led by gains in its missiles and mission-systems operations.

The company ended the year with a record backlog of $82.6 billion, up $300 million from a year earlier and $3.9 billion from the prior quarter. Orders this year are forecast to be between $41.5 billion and $43 billion.

Net profit of $488 million in the three months to Dec. 31 compared with $569 million a year earlier, with per-share earnings dipping to $1.50 from $1.73. Operating profit fell 21% to $834 billion.

Lockheed shares closed Wednesday at $156.65, pushing its market value above $50 billion for the first time at session-end. The stock is up 5.4% so far this year.

Write to Doug Cameron at doug.cameron@wsj.com

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