Vestas Returns to No. 1 Spot in Global Wind Turbine Supplier Ranking in 2016
February 20 2017 - 4:00AM
FTI Consulting, Inc. (NYSE:FCN) today released FTI Intelligence’s
preliminary rankings for the world’s top five wind turbine original
equipment manufacturers (“OEMs”), which found Danish manufacturer
Vestas reclaimed the title as the world’s largest supplier of wind
turbines in 2016.
These rankings will be published in the Global Wind Market
Update ― Demand & Supply 2016, which will be released in March
2017. Preliminary results are subject to change between now and the
release date of the actual report. The report is part of a series
of data-driven market intelligence publications evaluating
competitive markets, policy, finance, technology and business
models across the energy spectrum.
Vestas’ return to the top spot was particularly driven by
increased installations in the U.S. market, where it overtook U.S.
manufacturer GE as the No. 1 supplier, according to preliminary
findings from FTI Intelligence. GE and Enercon rose to second and
fifth place, respectively, by taking advantage of strong domestic
market growth in the United States and Germany.
Chinese supplier Goldwind fell two positions to third place,
primarily due to a 24 percent drop in China’s wind power
installations, according to FTI Intelligence research. Spain’s
Gamesa moved up one position to No. 4, largely attributable to its
strong presence in India and emerging
markets.
At this time, FTI Intelligence assigns the following OEM market
rankings:
2016 Ranking |
Turbine OEM |
Change |
Commentary |
1 |
Vestas * |
+1 |
Up from 2nd position in 2015 |
2 |
GE * |
+1 |
Up from 3rd position in 2015 |
3 |
Goldwind ** |
-2 |
Down from 1st position in 2015 |
4 |
Gamesa* |
+1 |
Up from 5th position in 2015 |
5 |
Enercon* |
+1 |
Up from 6th position in 2015 |
* Based on preliminary data
analysis
**
Based on installation data released by
CWEA
Note: Gamesa and Siemens are ranked separately as the merger
between Siemens Wind and Gamesa is not yet finalised.
Among other highlights, FTI Intelligence notes that Siemens
dropped out of the top five for the first time since 2012, mainly
due to its decreased annual installation in both the United States
and offshore wind sector in 2016. In addition, Nordex returned to
the top 10 after its recent acquisition of Acciona’s turbine
business.
The Global Wind Market Update – Demand & Supply 2016 report
examines the evolution of the global wind market in 2016 and
addresses key market and technology trends and policy updates. It
also forecasts global demand trends through 2026. This report will
be available free of charge on FTI Intelligence’s website in March
2017.
Preliminary Findings in the Global Wind Market Update – Demand
& Supply 2016:
- 14 percent drop year-on-year in new wind installations
in 2016 vs. 2015. Following a record 2015 with 63 GW of
installations, the best year ever for the wind industry, 2016
showed a 14 percent drop in installations. A slowdown of
installations in China is the primary reason for the decrease. That
said, there were a few notable achievements for the wind power
sector in 2016. Wind overtook coal as the second-largest form of
power generation in the EU in terms of total installed power
capacity, just behind natural gas. In the United States, wind
passed a historic milestone to overtake hydropower as the largest
renewable energy source of energy. The UK generated more
electricity from wind than from coal in the full calendar year of
2016.
- Solar PV replaced wind as the No. 1 non-hydro renewable
energy source in 2016. Due to explosive growth in China,
global solar PV installations in 2016 passed 70 GW. In addition,
solar PV is emerging as a strong competitor to wind in regard to
its cost, beating wind in the first and second power auctions in
Mexico in 2016. Wind, however, eclipsed solar in the renewable
tenders launched in Chile and Argentina in 2016. Interestingly,
four out of the world’s top 10 wind turbine vendors have already
entered the solar industry.
- Paris Agreement came into force. On 5 October
2016, the Paris Agreement, the UN international agreement on
climate change, entered into force. Out of 197 parties to the
convention, 132 have ratified the agreement. Such international
support reflects strong momentum behind the global transition to
clean energy.
- Near-term stable growth in the United States is
secured, but medium-term outlook is uncertain. The U.S.
wind market outlook in the near term remains stable, as the new
Treasury secretary has confirmed support for the existing smooth
phase-out of the Production Tax Credit (“PTC”). However, U.S.
market development in the medium term remains uncertain as
President Trump has repeatedly called for the repeal of the Clean
Power Plan (“CPP”) and the United States exiting the Paris
Agreement.
- Consolidation continues to occur across the value
chain. In the past 12 months, large turbine vendors not
only snapped up rivals (Siemens/Gamesa, Gamesa/Adwen,
Senvion/Kenersys and WEG/Northern Power Systems) to gain new
strategic positioning, but also acquired assets upstream in the
value chain (GE/LM Wind Power, Senvion/EUROS and most recently,
Nordex/SSP). In addition, state-owned Chinese companies were very
active in the overseas market and acquired renewable assets around
the world (SPIC/PacificHydro and China Three Gorges/Meerwind).
- Offshore wind cost reduction targets have been
beaten. Results of the awarded offshore wind tenders
launched in Denmark (the lowest bid, €49.9/MWh at Kriegers Flak)
and the Netherlands (the lowest bid, €54.5/MWh at Borssele III+IV)
in 2016 (both excluding transmission costs of around €14/MWh)
indicate that the LCOE (levelised cost of electricity) for offshore
wind in Europe has reduced significantly in the past five years,
and they also suggest that returns on investment are compressing
here.
- Corporate PPAs continue to grow. The wind
industry saw the increased use of power purchase agreements
(“PPAs”), self-consumption and direct contracts with customers in
the past three years. Cumulative corporate renewable PPA capacity
contracted in the United States passed the 7 GW milestone at the
end of 2016. With 1 GW contracted today, Europe lags behind the
United States, but this is expected to change as the commercial and
industrial (“C&I”) segment wants secure green energy on a
long-term basis due to rising electricity prices and the
competitive prices offered by renewables.
- Digitalization. Increased data quality, data
access and grid integration are enabling increasing data analytics
across the value chain in siting and design, asset performance
management, asset health management and trading and balancing in
the wind sector. Major turbine OEMs continued to launch advanced
analytics packages in 2016 that can be applied throughout value
chain. Following GE’s launch of an industrial data and analytics
product, Predix Cloud, to the market in August 2015, Vestas and
Envision launched Clearsightᵀᴹ and Ensightᵀᴹ, respectively, in
2016, and the data analytics market is expected to grow
significantly.
“The drop in wind power installations in 2016 has brought the
wind industry back to reality, as 2015 was an unusual year due to
strong demand in China ahead of a change in Feed in Tariffs
(‘FiTs’),” said Feng Zhao, a Senior Director at FTI Consulting.
“The relatively poor performance of Chinese turbine OEMs in 2016
has shown that relying heavily on the home market for growth is not
a guarantee for sustainable success.”
Aris Karcanias, a Senior Managing Director at FTI Consulting and
Co-Lead of the Clean Energy practice, added: “Solar PV not only
replaced wind as the most popular renewable energy source in 2016,
but also beat wind power in the power auctions launched in Mexico.
However, we view this as positive news because the competition is
certain to create another wave of technology innovation in the wind
industry in order to further bring down the LCOE and make renewable
energy even more competitive and affordable.”
The Global Wind Market Update – Demand & Supply 2016 report
is authored by members of the FTI-CL Energy practice, a
cross-practice team of energy experts from FTI Consulting and its
subsidiary, Compass Lexecon. The views expressed in this piece are
those of the authors and are not necessarily the views of FTI
Consulting, its other professionals, its management or its
subsidiaries and affiliates.
To learn more about FTI Intelligence’s Global Wind Market Update
– Demand & Supply 2016, please visit the FTI Intelligence
website at www.fti-intelligence.com or contact
fti-intelligence@fticonsulting.com.
About FTI IntelligenceFTI Intelligence clean
energy research concentrates on the global, rapidly evolving
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