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China Yuchai International Ltd

China Yuchai International Ltd (CYD)

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ITMS ITMS 5 years ago
China Yuchai International Ltd $CYD Ran Out Of Gas In March, Watch This Bounce Level

China Yuchai International Ltd (NYSE:CYD) is a leading manufacturer and distributor in diesel and natural gas engines for light, medium and heavy duty engines for trucks, buses and construction equipment. Recently, the stock topped out on March 4, 2019 at $19.95 a share. Since that pivot high the stock has been steadily declining and is currently trading at $16.72 a share. Swing traders should watch the $15.00 area for near term support and a potential bounce in the stock. This support level is where the stock broke out in late January and it should be defended again when initially tested.





Nick Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks
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stocktrademan stocktrademan 7 years ago
CYD invest 17.35









normal chart




log chart



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rngmsl rngmsl 11 years ago
C&C Trucks & Y&C Engines

http://s491.photobucket.com/user/rngmsl/slideshow/
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MrB2 MrB2 11 years ago
Jaarc, please get in touch with me by PMing me here
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/profile/?u=634

I wish to run something by you
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
http://www.cnbuses.com/photo/14222.xxx
(No htm allowed).

There are 29 photos of Yuchai's engines at exhibition if you can figure out where to place the "htm".

The YC4S looks like it could fit in an automobile.
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
Well, we closed above 14 after flirting with the 13's again. I am long and a believer, but I fear worse ahead unless the actual numbers for the Q are a lot better than anticipated. Just carnage so far this year,
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rngmsl rngmsl 11 years ago
Yuchai's getting serious about cutting expenses.


Yuchai builds most competitive engine enterprise through lean manufacturing

Yuchai Group 2013-04-15 14:31
Recently, at the second monthly presentation of Yuchai Group on lean manufacturing, the pilot entities such as CSR Yuchai Sichuan Engine Co., Ltd. (CSR Yuchai) and Yuchai Power Machinery Co., Ltd. (YPM) made presentations on the progress and effects of respective projects. The presentations showed remarkable achievements in Yuchai's lean manufacturing projects.

Despite the continuous slump of the engine market in 2012, Yuchai achieved intensive growth, with its share in the engine market rising by 3 percent. A major reason that Yuchai grew more healthily than similar enterprises in 2012 is that its lean manufacturing projects functioned, said Wu Qiwei, general manager of Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd.

In October 2011, the lean manufacturing project of Yuchai Machinery was launched, with the aim of building Yuchai into ??the world??s most competitive professional engine supplier??, namely a professional engine enterprise with tremendous comprehensive strength in such aspects as product, market, marketing, service and cost.

In October 2012, Yuchai Group has also launched lean manufacturing projects, selecting three subsidiaries--CSR Yuchai, YPM and Yuchai Huayuan as the pilot entities for lean manufacturing in the hope of gradually extending lean manufacturing to other business fields, subsidiaries and links of the industry chain on the basis of the successful pilot practice of the entities, thus creating a group lean manufacturing platform and building a lean operation system characteristic of Yuchai.

Lean manufacturing yields benefit

In April 2012, Yuchai Machinery held Phase 1 summary conference & Phase 2 launch conference on lean projects. At the conference, eight Phase 1 projects were rewarded: the heavy engine assembling efficiency improvement project of Engine Plant 1 won the special prize, the smelting/core making/modeling project of the Foundry won the first prize, the logistics efficiency improvement project of Engine Plant 2 and the 6M body efficiency improvement project of the Vehicle Engine Assembly Department of the Machining Plant won the second prize, and four others including the TPM equipment project of the Production Department won the third prize, with a bonus of ranging from 50,000 yuan to 100,000 yuan.

By late 2012, all the 16 projects had been completed, met fixed targets and achieved remarkable achievements: Yuchai Machinery's lean management system had taken shape, with the quality of the sample line up by over 28 percent, efficiency up by over 27 percent, cost down by over 30 percent and average equipment failure rate down by 29 percent.

On February 2013, the second monthly presentation of Yuchai Group on lean manufacturing was held at YPM. Three pilot entities--CSR Yuchai, YPM and Yuchai Huayuan reported on respective projects.

Tan Jiang, head of YPM's assembly efficiency increase project, said, "Since launching the assembly efficiency increase project on November 27, 2012, YPM has set a target of increasing man-hour output and production capacity by 20 percent. Through rectification, adding equipment, improving tools, optimizing layout, straightening out logistics, dismantlement and rearrangement, and line balance re-measurement, by January 31, the project's man-hour output and production capacity had increased by 14.92 percent and 16.9 percent respectively. We must fulfill the target before the project acceptance on March 30."

Among CSR Yuchai's lean manufacturing projects, through earlier efforts, the time consumed in the bottleneck process of the project of standard operation of medium-speed engines has reduced from 326 minutes to 276 minutes, and the assembly efficiency of cylinder cover is expected to increase by 18.2 percent; by adjusting processing technology, the speed regulator efficiency increase project has increased the efficiency of cylindrical fine turning by 310 percent.

Meng Jianmei, a member of Yuchai Huayuan's efficiency increase project team, said she and her teammates compressed the site work-in-process inventory by optimizing the process layout during the lean project. In January 2013, Yuchai Huayuan's work-in-process inventory dropped by 13.92 percent.

Typical cases shows prominent effects

During practicing lean manufacturing, Yuchai has not only gained strength for its future development, but also yielded benefit to provide guarantee for its continuous and healthy operations, which are concretely reflected in many typical cases.

Case 1: Efficient team collaboration

To better the situation of lack of collaboration among teams of all entities, on the basis of remarkable results of the 11 pilot teams, Yuchai Machinery increased the number of lean project teams to 104 with 1,700 members, thus gradually establishing a project management mechanism conducive to coordinating all teams efficiently.

The project group worked out a project map for lean teams, and fixed a series of measures and action criterion for fulfilling targets, to make team management of all entities maintain respective characteristics and meet the basic requirements of coordination. Through efficient collaboration, the project group fulfilled all targets as scheduled.

Over 3,000 problems were spotted in the reflection meeting and 2,180 were improved. In minor team activities, the failure rate of team equipment of Engine Plant 1 decreased from 4.02 percent to 0.29 percent, the improvement rate of operation time of Engine Plant 2 was up 12 percent. Bumper fruits have been yielded in ensuring safety, improving quality, reducing cost and increasing benefit.

Case 2: Accomplish one piece flow (OPF)

The Foundry's logistics improvement project for core making made improvement in logistics, field operation and visual Kanban management, thus increasing core quality and production efficiency, reducing cost and improving the entire production flow.

The project group mobilized all workers to search process waste, analyzed situation improvement and rewarded workers' valuable proposals. The group found field losses through quantization: due to large core inventory, workers wasted time in non-value-added operations such as search and handling; the circulation cycle of cores was up to 48 hours.

The project group determined three influencing factors: OPF was yet to be formed and reserves are needed between working procedures; workers differed in production efficiency; and core inventory was large.

Aiming at the three factors, the project group began to practice OPF involving core shooting, core finishing, drilling, core assembly, dip coating and baking; to practice the coordinated process of online core assembly to avoid redundant labor, simplify and standardize operations; to practice the visual management of core inventory to rationally arrange production. During improvement, the project group applied a lot of improvement tools, such as Spaghetti Chart, operation (element) analysis, fixed-point photography, value stream mapping, process flow diagram and standard operation procedure (SOP).

In late 2012, the core making section of the cylinder cover shop of the Foundry fulfilled the targets by reducing core inventory from 484 vehicles to 280 vehicles and core circulation cycle from 48 hours to 32 hours, with a fulfill rate of 136 percent and 166 percent respectively. In a production cycle, an inventory backlog worth 870,000 yuan was reduced, and a cost of 230,000 yuan was directly reduced for scrap reduction.

Case 3: Exhaust pipe "heats up water" to reduce cost by 270,000 yuan annually

YPM installed a two-way water tank on the exhaust pipe of the best bench for two-cylinder engines to "heat up water" for testing, thus making water inlet temperature meet testing requirements, shortening running-in time before diesel engine testing, increasing the testing efficiency of two-cylinder engines by 10 percent and reducing average fuel consumption by 0.8kg/unit.

To increase testing efficiency, YPM diagnosed the full process of testing and traced the reason for long running-in time before diesel engine testing. The process requires that water inlet temperature should range from 65 degrees to 85 degrees and the regulator should be used to maintain the temperature range.

The technical improvement substantially reduced the running-in time of diesel engines extended to make water temperature meet technical requirements, the time decreased from 3,600 seconds to 1,200 seconds for the first unit, and decreased by 600 seconds from the second unit. If 11 testing benches turn out 130 two-cylinder engines daily, 27 testing hours will be saved and 104 kilograms of diesel consumption will be reduced daily, and a cost of 270,000 yuan will be reduced annually.

Continuous improvement sharpens corporate competitiveness

With the smooth advancement of Phase 1 and Phase 2 lean manufacturing projects, the continuous progress made by Yuchai Machinery has been yielding substantial benefit for the enterprise and unconsciously affecting and changing the staff's thinking and codes of conduct.

Lean manufacturing has injected infinite power of "continuous improvement" in Yuchai and found a road of "intensive growth" by rebuilding competitiveness when external markets are weak for Yuchai.

At the second monthly presentation of Yuchai Group on lean manufacturing, Zhou Sunhai, vice president of Yuchai Group, said, as Yuchai's systematic project in the "twelfth five-year" period, lean manufacturing should focus on building Yuchai's lean industry platform and its advantage in industrial skills. The team members should overcome the fear of difficulties, make innovation, accelerate lean talent training and endeavor to bring Yuchai's lean manufacturing projects to a new level.

In 2013, Yuchai will proceed with lean manufacturing, optimize, reinforce and popularize lean achievements, and spare no efforts to build a lean system. The "collaborative improvement of suppliers" to be accentuated by Yuchai Machinery in 2013, from the perspective of whole value chain, examined and eliminated non-value-added operations to improve the "QCD" level of Yuchai and its suppliers simultaneously.
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rngmsl rngmsl 11 years ago
Yan Ping pushing the Premier for stimulus money

Yan Ping invited to participate in the new government for the first time the economic situation, experts and business executives forum
Yuchai Group 2013-04-15 21:36
The conference room at the State Department on April 12, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang hosted a forum of experts and responsible persons of the new government for the first time the economic situation, to listen to the views and recommendations of experts and entrepreneurs in the current economic situation. Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Group Co., Ltd. Chairman of the Board of Directors of Yan Ping as a representative of the responsible persons of the machinery industry, was invited to participate in the forum and made a statement on the status of machinery manufacturing, development and transformation and upgrading.

Meeting, Yan Ping gave a brief description of the machinery industry market forecast market trends for 2013. Forum to promote the development of the industry, Yan Ping put forward the following recommendations: First, to further rationalize the coordination mechanism to promote motor vehicle perform higher emissions regulations. Subsidize the purchase of medium and heavy trucks, including: to give compliance country 4 emission standards, to promote the oil a comprehensive compliance and encourage the development of national self-diesel engine, before the execution of the State 4 emissions regulations to accelerate the core technology of the domestic processing device electronically controlled diesel injection systems and diesel engines improved. Further simplify vehicle announcement management The third is to promote the implementation of the Implementing Rules of the General Office of the State Council's views on the strengthening of the internal combustion engine industrial energy conservation "as soon as possible. The fourth is to maintain the natural gas and gasoline and diesel price spread is less than 0.65:1, and promote the development of clean energy engine. The fifth is to strengthen capacity building, to prevent industry overcapacity, and timely with the remanufacturing industry circular economy to achieve sustainable development.

Yan Ping speech, Prime Minister Li Keqiang has expressed a strong interest, chipped, questioning, exchange from the development of the machinery manufacturing industry comes to energy saving and environmental protection, and China's economic transformation and upgrading. Li Keqiang said: grasp the macro policies still need to gain a firm foothold, focusing on the transformation and upgrading. Everyone thinks the heel to tie stability, but also put more effort on the transformation and upgrading, to build the upgraded version of the Chinese economy. Term needs, and long-term to promote the transition to achieve the upgrade. "

Symposium total of ten experts, scholars and entrepreneurs representatives to speak, speak on behalf of the entrepreneur, in addition to Yan Ping, general manager of China Power Investment Lu Qizhou, Midea Group Chairman Fang Hongbo, Youngor Group Chairman Li Rucheng.

Listen to the experts and entrepreneurs to speak, Li Keqiang said that, since the beginning of this year, China's economic performance generally smooth start, which is conducive to stability in all aspects expected. At the same time it should be noted, unstable and uncertain factors in the international and domestic environment is still more deep-seated contradictions continue to appear, the situation is quite complex. Grasp macroeconomic trends to enhance the predictability, good looking regularity in the ever changing, tendentious something critical to the sustained and healthy development of the economy. With predictability, business and society will be able to more reasonable allocation of resources, and timely decision-making; government also be able to know what's what, before making any decisions, both plan ahead, be prepared and do not panic, timely and calmly deal.

Li Keqiang stressed, must rely on deepening reform to enhance the development potential. For the Chinese economy unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable deep-seated contradictions, to prescribe the right medicine, each agent out "prescriptions", both capable of symptoms, but more able to tackle. Fundamentally have to rely on reform, regather through reform, and enhance the vitality of the economic development. Even if the need to introduce some temporary measures have to be careful not to push forward market-oriented reform and development set up obstacles in the future. To focus on the formation of a long-term effective institutional arrangement works to enhance the development potential and continue to release bonus reform, to promote long-term economic sustained and healthy development.

The meeting was attended by Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli, Liu Yandong, Wang Yang, Ma Kai, State Councilor Yang Jing, Wang Yong, the heads of ministries and people.
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
Q1 truck sales in china http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-12/truck-sales-in-china-augur-well-for-rubber-orient-futures-says.html
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rngmsl rngmsl 11 years ago
Agreed!
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Kenna Kenna 11 years ago
This is just the usual suspects doing some positioning in the stock... North Korea is unrelated, all macro stuff is unrelated. This stock requires a lot of patience which tries every man (and woman's) soul. The old adage applies: buy low, sell high. And read Jaarc's posts because he does a lot of work on this stock and he knows it better than anyone out there, including the published professionals. If he had a tip jar, it would be full :)
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218susk 218susk 11 years ago
I wonder if this selloff has something to do with North Korea?
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rngmsl rngmsl 11 years ago
Shaw's positions as of yesterday.

I only come up with about 90 million bucks worth with the UTSI position.

CYD China Yuchai International ... 1 - $13.65 $36,164,000 2,293,248 37.29% 6,693,000 -18,269 6.153 Diversified Machinery
UTSI Utstarcom Inc 2 - $0.75 $22,477,000 21,796,760 23.18% 1,491,000 1,421,688 14.404 Wireless Communications
CQB Chiquita Brands Internation... 3 - $7.37 $13,638,000 1,653,115 14.06% 1,020,000 1,481 3.638 Farm Products
XNY China Xiniya Fashion Limite... 4 - $1.33 $4,565,000 3,936,194 4.71% 616,000 377,880 6.823 Textile - Apparel Clo...
AEG AEGON N.V. (ADR) 5 - $5.99 $2,701,000 419,458 2.79% -5,569,000 -1,167,949 0.026 Life & Health Insurance
MCP.PA Molycorp Inc Pfd Conv Ser A 6 New $20.60 $2,692,000 285,250 2.78% 2,692,000 285,250 3.169 N/A
YGE Yingli Green Energy Holding Co 7 - $1.85 $2,398,000 1,020,562 2.47% 1,384,000 423,984 0.649 Semiconductor - Integ...
CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc 8 - $3.80 $2,372,000 697,726 2.45% 1,033,000 217,526 1.687 Semiconductor - Speci...
COCO Corinthian Colleges Inc 9 - $1.88 $2,107,000 860,000 2.17% 44,000 -3,500 1.016 Education & Training ...
ESI ITT Educational Services Inc 10 New $12.27 $1,942,000 112,200 2% 1,942,000 112,200 0.406 Education & Training ...
SPWR SunPower Corp A 11 - $9.73 $562,000 123,512 0.58% 0 -1,313 0.127 Scientific & Technica...
QXM Qiao Xing Mobile Communication 12 - $0.12 $524,000 4,368,011 0.54% -214,000 -1,783,786 8.239 Wireless Communications
XINGF Qiao Xing Universal Resourc... 13 - $0.09 $102,000 1,141,994 0.11% -117,000 -1,293,664 1.192 Integrated Telecommun...
GCI Gannett Inc 15 Closed $20.92 $0 0 0% -4,345,000 -244,800 0 Publishing
NOK Nokia Corporation (ADR) 16 Closed $3.29 $0 0 0% -845,000 -328,215 0 Communication Equipment
AB AllianceBernstein 14 Closed $21.47 $0 0 0% -2,167,000 -140,645 0 Asset Management
YTEC Yucheng Technologies Limited 18 Closed $3.86 $0 0 0% -9,135,000 -2,436,136 0 Business Software & S...
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Kenna Kenna 11 years ago
Just a figure of speech Mauricer by a seasoned analyst I once worked with a long time ago. Agree companies don't like reacting to price action in their stocks. I don't agree with that strategy because the sharks will take advantage of the vacuum (that's my political experience side). Nevertheless, Yan Ping has a long term plan and he's not going to let short term noise distract him. This bagholder likes Ping's product driven strategy, not so crazy about his communication with the investment world strategy.
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
They have never done so, and I don't expect that to change. Wishful thinking Kenna. How can there be more sellers than buyers. Maybe more selling pressure, but don't they have to be equivalent?
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Kenna Kenna 11 years ago
Mauricer... I haven't clue except that there are more sellers than buyers in a stock where there should be more buyers than sellers. Management really should come out to support the stock. If they don't in the next day or so then we have our answer.
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
Must one assume shocking news on the way?
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rngmsl rngmsl 11 years ago
High-polluting Vehicle Elimination to Benefit Bus and Heavy-duty Truck Markets.
According to the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) of Air Pollution Control in Key Areas (the Plan), high-polluting vehicles, also known as yellow-labeled vehicles, will be eliminated from main cities in air pollution control key areas by the end of 2013. By the end of 2015, yellow-labeled vehicles that registered before 2005 will be eliminated nationwide with no yellow-labeled vehicles running on roads of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze Delta and Zhujiang Delta regions.

China will invest ¥94 billion ($15 billion) from 2012 to 2015 in eliminating 5.44 million yellow-labeled vehicles in key areas with bus and medium- and heavy-duty truck markets benefitting the most.
China had 15.2 million yellow-labeled vehicles by the end of 2011, accounting for 16.4 percent of the whole vehicle parc. Most of the country’s vehicle pollution can be attributed to medium- and heavy-duty trucks as well as medium and large buses that have not reached the State III or above emission standards. The country is estimated to eliminate 348,000, 392,000, 610,000 and 778,000 units of high-polluting large buses, medium buses, heavy-duty trucks and medium trucks respectively during the 2012-2015 period, according to a report of Bank of China International Securities (BOCI Securities).

BOCI Securities says most city buses under the State III emission standards will be eliminated or to be replaced by energy-saving and new energy buses including hybrid buses, CNG and LNG buses in the next few years.
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218susk 218susk 11 years ago
Thanks Kenna for the reply, hopefully you are correct, I'm so frustrated with these stocks I have taken a huge financial loss. I understand small caps are easily manipulated, some have bottomed some are just scams the way these fell off the cliff I feel cheated .i know some of these will never come back and the ones that do it will take years . You're right about CYD it at least it pays a dividend but still easily manipulated as we saw in the last two days maybe this a shakeout before a big move up.
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Kenna Kenna 11 years ago
218susk... chinese stocks have taken a beating thanks to the american media via cramer and the like bashing all chinese stocks even though CYD is a viable, diversified, profitable, product driven company. Throw in Ben Bernacke exporting inflation to china and we have an uphill battle on our hands. But it will turn around. From all I've read by June we should start seeing an upswing. Until then we will be under assault and only the strong will survive. Very tough environment for small cap companies to manage through, many are being ground down.. but CYD is doing a great job. They will survive.
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
Yes and no.

There is useful information there if you put it all together. But the information I have posted goes beyond what is there.
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
Is there any significance or correlation to any of your posts to this link? http://www.chinabuses.org/news/2013/0314/article_6736.html
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
Heavy Vehicles Equipped with Weichai Power in Leading Place in Jan.
2013-03-18 Author:Lily Source:www.chinabuses.org

Summarize:In Jan. 2013, from the spare part suppliers for the heavy trucks, the sales volumes of the Weichai Power engines was in the leading place in the engine industry. And the market share of Weichai engines was 29.99 percent.

www.chinabuses.org: In Jan. 2013, from the spare part suppliers for the heavy trucks, the sales volumes of the Weichai Power engines was in the leading place in the engine industry. And the market share of Weichai engines was 29.99 percent.

Besides, the No. 2 was Sinotruck Hangfa Engine, which accounted for 14.28 percent.

Dongfeng Cummins was in the third place in the engine industry, which accounted for 14.18 percent.

And the total market share of the top three engine suppliers were 58.45 percent.

FAW Wuxi Diesel Engine Works was in the No. 4 place in the engine industry, which accounted for 13.65 percent.

Yuchai Group accounted for 13.30 percent of the market share in the engine industry, which made it become the top five place.
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
Heavy Truck Engines (Weichai vs Yuchai) in 2013.

In the same article that showed Weichai represented 29.99% of January's heavy-duty truck engine sales, it was reported that Yuchai accounted for 13.30%.

(Either way, that is much higher than 10.2% or 6.3%.)

Well, what about February then...

Weichai was reported to be 29% (rounded)...and Yuchai was shown on the chart at just 10%...but it's wrong!

The article states..."The first three engine companies account for 63.25% of the heavy truck market, (including) the fourth and fifth place engine companies of Cummins and Yuchai...(the Top 5) accounted for 91.17 percent of the heavy truck market."

As per the chart:
1.) Weichai 29.0%
2.) Wuxi 20.0%
3.) Hangfa 14.0%

Those 3 add up to 63%...which is pretty close to the 63.25% as stated.

Therefore, if the top 5 add up to 91.17% (as published), the 4th and 5th place companies must total another 27.92% combined.

Cummins is shown at 14.0% in the chart.

Even rounding Cummins up to a maximum of 14.49% (which is likely too high and would probably move them up into the 3rd spot)...Yuchai would have to have a MINIMUM of the difference.

Doing some quick math...
27.92% - 14.49% = 13.43%...or (likely) higher!

Weichai appears to be losing market share in the heavy truck engine segment while Yuchai appears to be gaining market share.

Have a Nice Day!
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
Heavy Truck Engines & Yuchai - An Historical Review

Once upon a time...the Annual Report for 2010 presented some interesting information and statistics within Boo Guan Saw's President's Statement.

Such as...

GYMCL sold:
551,592 engines in 2010.
467,899 engines in 2009.

Heavy-Duty engine sales were:
64,147 in 2010 (up 72.9% over 2009), and
that "represented 10.2% of the entire heavy-duty engine market."

Medium-Duty engine sales were:
218,344 in 2010 (up 34.5% over 2009)
"comprising approximately 49% of the medium-duty engine market."

From the above I can calculate that CYD sold approximately:
37,101 heavy-duty engines in 2009 (64,147 divided by 1.729)
162,338 medium-duty engines in 2009 (218,344 divided by 1.345)

Knowing that we can calculate out an estimate of what percentage of GYMCL's sales were Heavy-duty, Medium-duty, and the remainder (light-duty?) for those years.

2009 Summary by percentage:
7.93% Heavy-duty
34.70% Medium-duty
57,38% Light-duty

2010 Summary by percentage:
11.63% Heavy-duty
39.58% Medium-duty
48.79% Light-duty

Now, for the "caveat":
I'm not sure how Boo Guan Saw was categorizing the engines because 64,147 does NOT equal 10.2% of the heavy-duty truck engine sales reported for 2010.

It would be just 6.3% of those (64,177 divided by 1,074,000...see previous post).

But it makes what I will reveal in my next post that much more interesting!

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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
Heavy Truck Engines & Weichai - An Historical Review

I saw an article dated March 27 that gave several historical numbers for the Heavy-Duty Truck segment and Weichai's sales therein.

Using some Algebra I can calculate reasonably approximate numbers for the last few years.

According to the article "In 2010,...the heavy truck market in China to complete the single greatest breakthrough year sales reached 1,017,400, a year-on-year growth rate of 59.93%."

From that I can calculate that heavy truck sales in 2009 were approximately 636,153 (1,017,400 divided by 1.5993).

Also, according to the article "At the same time,...Weichai...2010 heavy-duty truck engine sales reached 414,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 83%, the market share of 40.7%, a year-on-year increase of 5.1 percentage points"

From that I can calculate that Weichai sold approximately 226,230 (414,000 divided by 1.83) heavy-duty truck engines in 2009.

Also, it appears that Weichai's approximate market share in 2009 was 35.6% (40.7% - 5.1%).

By way of a check on that, 35.6% times 636,153 (see above) equals 226,471...which is pretty darn close to the 226,230 figure I calculated above.

Continuing from the article " 2012...Weichai Power heavy truck engines sold 207,500 units, down 34.8%, 32.6% of the market share, maintained the dominant position of the industry, but more than last year dropped by 3.56 percentage points".

From that I can calculate that Weichai sold approximately 318,252 (207,500 divided by 1 - .348) heavy-duty truck engines in 2011.

Also, that Weichai's market share was approximately 36.16% (32.6% plus the 3.56% drop) in 2011. Dividing 318,252 by 36.16% allows me to approximate the entire heavy duty truck segment in 2011...880,120.

SUMMARY:

Estimated Heavy truck sales by year:
2009 - 636,153
2010 - 1,017,400
2011 - 880,120
2012 - 636,001*

*From another source which says that 2012 was down 27.78% from 2011...which would algebraically indicate heavy truck sales of 880,664. Once again, pretty darn close.

Estimated Weichai Heavy Truck segment engine sales by year:
2009 - 226,471
2010 - 414,000
2011 - 318,252
2012 - 207,500


Estimated Weichai Heavy Truck segment percentage by year:
2009 - 35.60%
2010 - 40.70%
2011 - 36.16%
2012 - 32.60%

Also, it has been reported in the Chinese press that Weichai had heavy truck engine sales of:
January 2013 - 29.99%
February 2013 - 29%*

* appears to be a rounded figure which would indicate somewhere between 28.51% - 29.49%. I'm guessing it's closer to the upper end.

Weichai has been the "800lb. Gorilla" in the heavy truck segment for years. But, their market segment percentage has dropped several points below where they were in 2009.

Do I detect a trend?
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218susk 218susk 11 years ago
If you think it's not "junk " than check out rino, Dgwiy,Cbeh,dynp, Scok,gure,valv, wtfs, newn,deer and many more these are some the junk I still own besides cyd. That's the reason I'm so bitter with Chinese stock , U. S.
Investors have been scammed out of billions . Sorry I refer to junk so many times but it best describes most of Chinese stock.
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218susk 218susk 11 years ago
If you think it's not "junk " than check out rino, Dgwiy,Cbeh,dynp, Scok,gure,valv, wtfs, newn,deer and many more these are some the junk I still own besides cyd. That's the reason I'm so bitter with Chinese stock , U. S.
Investors have been scammed out billions . Sorry I refer to junk so many times but it best describes most of Chinese stock.
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
John Susko = China Bigot!

I recognize you...and your continual use of the word "junk" when posting about any Chinese company.

You are not welcome here.

He posts under the name of johnsusko73 on Yahoo.

If anyone does not believe me, please see the following link.
Be sure to set your search for more than just the last 3 months...then highlight the word "junk".

http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/userview/;_ylt=Ao0rFOk1vnlgxckW_Fb4w77eAohG;_ylu=X3oDMTB1aGFpZ29oBHBvcwM3BHNlYwNNZWRpYU1zZ0JvYXJkc1hIUlVsdA--;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3?&u=johnsusko73&bn=02b5b45c-e743-3c3f-a85e-c4d39b5968c3


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218susk 218susk 11 years ago
You should be nervous, this is dropping like a rock . I will never invest in Chinese junk again. Most of the Chinese small caps are trading for pennies on the dollar what a great investment "if you're short" the longs are screwed.
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Kenna Kenna 11 years ago
I understand Mauricer... this is a small cap growth stock. It's not like they are going to flip a switch in two years and everything magically falls into place. They are building a diversified company that meets the needs of the chinese economy... and government right now... today. They are not losing money. They are gaining market share from its competitors. They are on the right track. It's just Portfolio Managers have no patience. It's month to month for them and their clients. Patience is one of those words a CEO should never, ever tell their shareholders to be, especially Americans. We are not a patient lot. Have a great weekend.
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
I'm just nervous, Kenna. I have a large position. That's all.
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
In Zhengzhou: BRT invested 71 Yutong hybrid buses
Time :13-04-02 Source: People's Government of Henan Province

The new hybrid transit bus independently developed by Zhengzhou Yutong recently put into Zhengzhou bus market operators.

http://admin.cvworld.cn/Upload/13/04/02/63500495156403086194138_pic.jpg
18 m Yutong hybrid bus

A total of 71 units, the body length of 18 meters ZK6180CHEVG1 new vehicles into BRT Bus Rapid Transit line in Zhengzhou City, the official carrier, is currently the world's first ultra-long-hybrid transit bus batch demonstration run.

The average of the Model Buses hundred kilometers 38.7L, the saving rate of 35.9% annually each car can save cost of over 10 million, and reduce carbon emissions by 44.8 tons, reduce 10 kg of a formulated PM2.5 emissions of about.

Among the models the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has been included in the national energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and application of recommended list "and the successful state financial subsidies hybrid transit bus demonstration projects to promote, the only one shortlisted 18 m mixed electric bus products.

In 2012, Zhengzhou Yutong Company sold a total of 2,000 energy-saving and new energy buses, 2013 plans to sell energy-saving and new energy bus reached the scale of 2,500.
---------------

Guess what engine is listed on Yutong's website (see below) as being available on this model?
Engine: YC6L280-42
http://www.yutong.com/products/ZK6180CHEVG1.xxxxx
(convert to .shtml)
Click on the Chassis Configuration/Parameters tab (the 3rd tab across, near the middle)
"ZK6180CHEVG1 | public transport new energy era has arrived"
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Kenna Kenna 11 years ago
Maurice are you kidding me?
You've been around this stock a long time but sometimes I wonder why you still hold on or even buy it. You say the oddest things. Agree that CYD needs to start talking to investors more carefully but you should know the way the Chinese think and you should know enough about this company by now to understand it without peppering Jaarc with questions you should know the answers to. You're not Alex Potter are you? :)
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
I don't seem to be getting perspective searching for Chinese March sales. Maybe the price action is related to that
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
Yuchai 2013 the boat electric engine sales goals

http://img00.hc360.com/cm/201304/201304031430117486.jpg
Yuchai 2013 the boat electric engine sales goals against 30,000 units

March 31, Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd. 2013 ship electricity marketing work conference held in Guangzhou, lay a solid foundation for regulating the market to grow steadily meeting "lean operations" as its theme, the sales target of the proposed 2013 Yuchai ship call 30,000 .

AG General Manager Wu Qiwei, deputy general manager Wang Limin, general manager of the ship electric Division Tangzuo Xing, Yuchai oil company, CSR Yuchai leadership on behalf of the company as well as all levels of dealers, OEM customers and representatives attended the meeting.

During the meeting, Tang Zuoxing domestic macroeconomic environment in 2013 is not yet clear, is expected to stand-alone market demand remained unchanged or rise slightly in the last year, the ship machine market growth of about 5%. Yuchai will lean operations, laying a solid foundation, regulate the market, steady growth for the general idea, to ensure that the ship electricity sales exceeded 30,000 units.

Wu Qiwei fully affirmed the achievements of the ship power sector last year, and thank you for your hard work. Wu Qiwei 2013 Yuchai will be in-depth research, continue to improve the the ship electric plate-type spectrum, the perfect market segments, do the management, lean operations to protect each of the operating systems capable of supporting the continued development of ship electric plate.
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218susk 218susk 11 years ago
Not gonna happen next year either, no one wants Chinese stock.
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
On heavy volume for CYD. Maybe next year...
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
All this great news has us going back to the 14's. Is the market ALWAYS wrong?
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
According to a report from the Chinese passenger statistics information network data, China's "new energy" (I'm pretty sure that refers to pure electric and hybrid) passenger car (Buses) sales increased from 2,044 during 2011, up to 6,614 in 2012.

Yutong new energy bus sales reached 1,840 in 2012, the market share of 27.8%, ranking first in the industry.

(Now consider that Yutong just sold 298 of them to one customer (?). That represents 16.2% of all of last year's "new energy" bus sales for Yutong...and 4.5% for the entire country.)

From another article...

"Yutong began to receive non-pilot city of Baoding, Wenzhou, Dongguan, more than 20 orders totaling more than 1,000 units. Currently, Baoding purchasing 298 hybrid buses (see previous post) in the first batch of 50 has been completed delivered and put into operation."

"Needless to mince words, in the field of new energy bus, whether technical leadership or market share, or to obtain the amount of subsidies, Yutong are (is) far ahead of other competing products enterprises."

From another article...

Nanjing Bus Exhibition...Clean energy and new energy buses into mainstream

This show, clean energy and new energy buses represented 27 out of the 58 total show cars (brought by 20 companies).

Of which, 11 were hybrid buses (5 electric hybrid, and 6 gas-electric hybrid), 10 were natural gas buses, and 6 were pure electric buses.

"New energy vehicles subsidy policy is about to come out, the price decline for new energy vehicles, sales of new energy vehicles will play a positive role."

The article also mentions that there were 10 school buses being exhibited as well.
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
298 units (Buses) loaded with the Yuchai YC6J gas-electric hybrid bus engine will be put into use in Baoding, Hebei.

Yutong Bus ZK6120CHEVG1 March 12, the first batch of 114 units equipped with this engine have been delivered...The remaining engine to arrive, and fully operational by the end of April.

By the way, theYutong Bus ZK6120CHEVG1 just won the "Gold" Award for the best hybrid engine (bus) at the 13th China (Nanjing) International passenger cars (Buses) and auto parts exhibition

It was one of several awards (5?) that Yutong won.

The Yuchai YCHPT II hybrid system won the "Gold" Award for Bus Components.
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
Those are the rules as per Investors Hub.
You agreed to them when you signed up for this site.
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
Quite the dictator aren't you? Delete all you want that does not agree with your views. I continue to admire and read your research and try to overlook your attitude.
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
YES, you should know it!

Go back to the Yahoo Board and search through all of the posts over the last several years. There are literally hundreds of references to "passenger cars".

What the Hell do you think they were referring to?

(Not to mention that on numerous occasions I parenthetically added immediately following the words passenger car..."Bus" or "Buses".)

Did you think that Yuchai was selling automobile engines by the tens (or more) of thousands per year then?

You persist in displaying ignorance which belies your claims of having been in Public Accounting and serving as a CFO in a publicly held company...and that I find offensive.

P.S. - This is the CYD board.
Any posts not relevant to CYD will be deleted.

Also, Investor's Hub does not allow posts with links containing ".html".
Those posts will be deleted as well.

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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
Of course I knew that. No need to be insulting. That is why I put CAR. Am I expected to know that Bus = Passenger Car?
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
They have been the leader in the "Bus" engine segment for over a decade.

That's what "Bus" translates into when using Google or Bing translation software..."Passenger car".

I'm appalled that you don't know that.



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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
When did CYD become THE leader in the passenger CAR market? And any numbers to support it.
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jaarc-rm jaarc-rm 11 years ago
Yuchai boutique passenger car debut in 2013 in Nanjing Bus Exhibition
Source: Bus Union Author: Huang Lili 2013-04-02

The buses are the best products of the Chinese auto industry growth in 2012, the passenger car market in 2013 to maintain a good momentum of development, from March 28 to 30, the thirteenth of China (Nanjing) International passenger cars and spare parts-cum-city transport facilities The exhibition is held in Nanjing, which is our bus, the annual passenger market products, technology exchange platform.

As the leader of the Chinese passenger car market, Yuchai The carrying fine coach dynamic costumes exhibition debut.

To highlight Yuchai dominant position in the passenger car market, Yuchai focus on display in this exhibition:
YC6MK400-40 large passenger power (Diesel)
YC6G260N-50
YC6L260N-50
YC4D140N-50
YC6J190N-50 four gas engines and
YC6J200 hybrid system,

manufacturers user to the exhibition to highlight
YC4FA130-40 the Yuchai school bus dedicated power and
YC4S150-40-engine, this exhibit is designed for high-end commercial vehicle carefully crafted to attract the the number of participants and the number of media attention.

http://www.cnbuses.com/upimages/userfiles/images/news/20134/20134214321.jpg
Yuchai Pavilion

http://www.cnbuses.com/upimages/userfiles/images/news/20134/201342143245.jpg
Sales Deputy General Manager Zhou Chuanwu as party secretary of Tianjin bus the Bing Hua introduction Yuchai NG passenger power technology

http://www.cnbuses.com/upimages/userfiles/images/news/20134/201342143334.jpg
The hybrid system Yuchai YCHPTII Best New Energy Bus Components Award 2013 "Longpan" Cup Eighth China International Bus Contest

Yuchai's market share in the passenger car industry for 12 consecutive years ranked first in market share of over 60%, a high degree of recognition of the market and customers Yuchai passenger car brand Yuchai Bus Power professionalism, adaptability has a good reputation in the industry which.

The afternoon of March 28, Yuchai With carefully crafted YC6MK large passenger dedicated power Yuchai YCHPTII hybrid system in 2013 Longpan "cup 8th China International Bus Contest awards ceremony, respectively won the contest" passenger zero parts Gold Award "and" Best New Energy Bus Components Award "two awards, became the biggest winner of the awards ceremony engine enterprise.

The Yuchai sales company deputy general manager Zhouchuan Wu said, answering a reporter's interview at the show site, Yuchai Bus Power has been able to continue to pilot passenger car market, based on four main reasons:
1.) Yuchai passenger car brand strategy,
2.) Yuchai leading passenger car technology
3.) Yuchai complete power product spectrum
4.) Yuchai powerful service assurance support.

When asked of Yuchai in the NG market performance the Yuchai passenger gas engine sales of more than 1.8 million (18,000) units in 2012, the market share of 45%, ranking the first in the industry.

In the first quarter of 2013, Yuchai passenger gas engine Zhouchuan Wu said: has sold more than 5,000 units.

Domestic NG passenger car market in recent years has grown rapidly, especially along the coast of the LNG passenger growth is very obvious, mainly by oil and gas spreads, the impact of pressure on the environment are two major factors, the NG passenger cars is expected within the next few years will maintain rapid growth.

The Zhou Zhuanwu Yuchai will continue to do our best for NG passenger car market to provide excellent quality professional natural gas engines, and the dedication of fast service efforts NG passenger car market in China continues to be the leader.
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
Same early charade in the stock. Down. Recover later. Who is trying to fool who?
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nmauricer1 nmauricer1 11 years ago
Thanks. I guess that in China, one has to be "in" with the Party. A little overpowering though, and I hope safe...
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