Niger Delta Insurgency Likely a Long-Term Trend
June 24 2016 - 11:51AM
Dow Jones News
(This is one of a regular series of articles from independent
analysts on commodities-related themes. iJET is a risk management
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By Francois Christophe, iJET International
The security situation in the Niger Delta has rapidly
deteriorated due to a series of attacks targeting oil-industry
sites. Little is known of the group responsible for most of the
assaults, which have become a threat to the oil industry's
security. The revival of a Niger Delta insurgency could prove more
detrimental to Nigeria's economy than the ongoing Boko Haram
militant campaign, which is mostly limited to the northeast.
Since February, a new militant group has launched a series of
sophisticated attacks in Nigeria's southeastern Niger Delta against
the country's oil infrastructure. In February, Shell's Forcados
pipeline was ruptured in Burutu. In May, attackers targeted an
offshore platform belonging to Chevron; moreover, eight security
personnel were killed by unidentified gunmen in an assault against
a military base in Bayelsa State. As a result of these and other
incidents, Shell and Chevron evacuated personnel and shut down two
refineries and a major oil export terminal. Further attacks on oil
infrastructure occurred in June.
Most of the attacks have been claimed by the self-proclaimed
"Niger Delta Avengers," or NDA, an organization unheard of before
February. The size and membership of the group, which communicates
through social media, as well as its own website, remain unclear.
"The Avengers" have distanced themselves from the Movement for the
Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, and other groups, which
they accuse of pocketing government stipends.
So far, the NDA hasn't kidnapped foreign oil-industry
operatives, but this practice may change, especially since, on May
12, the Avengers released a statement announcing a two-week
ultimatum for all oil-industry firms to leave Nigeria. The demand
doesn't appear to have included a ceasefire, as attacks have
continued. It remains unclear how closely the Avengers would mimic
MEND's tactics, given their condemnation of the group. Unlike other
groups, the Avengers have apparently not been involved in the
kidnapping of oil-industry expatriates. For the moment, the group
seems intent on attacking infrastructure and reducing output; but
it isn't averse to violence, as evidenced by attacks against
security forces and government officials.
In any case, even if the NDA continues not to engage in
kidnappings, the revival of militancy in the Niger Delta could well
lead to a heightened threat of abduction for foreigners operating
there. On June 22, unidentified gunmen abducted three Australians,
a New Zealander, a South African and two locals in Cross River
State's Akpabuyo district. No group has yet claimed responsibility
for the abduction.
The end of the 2009 amnesty program, which until now has
provided former Niger Delta insurgents with monthly incomes, is the
most obvious spark for the insurgency's revival. Nigeria's 2016
budget reduced the program's funding by 70%. The budget slash
follows President Muhammadu Buhari's termination of the lucrative
security contracts that former President Goodluck Jonathan had
awarded the former militants. Mr. Buhari's administration has also
cracked down on oil theft, which benefits many former militants in
the region, as part of the president's anti-corruption drive. As a
result, former militants contend that the government's policies
ultimately work against the Delta's economic interests.
Buhari has limited options to restore security in the Delta. The
government cannot afford to resume amnesty payments, which would,
in any case, be at odds with the president's anti-corruption
platform. Instead, Mr. Buhari has signaled that he wouldn't
hesitate to use the military to "crush" the new assailants. Oil
industry figures, however, are concerned about a possible military
crackdown, which may alienate the Ijaw people, the Niger Delta's
indigenous inhabitants. Also, a military option would come at a
financial cost, likely surpassing that of the amnesty program.
Lastly, the Nigerian military is already engaged against Boko
Haram militants in the northeast and, increasingly, armed Fulani
cattle herders in the Middle Belt. The opening of a third front in
the Niger Delta could well overstretch resources.
The sharp increase in instability and violence observed since
February is likely to be only the beginning of a trend, and Mr.
Buhari's limited options to handle this emerging threat increase
the opportunity for military escalation. The sophistication of the
NDA suggests that the group's potential as a disruptor should be
taken seriously. Theft, vandalism, armed attacks, abductions,
piracy and civil unrest are possible threats facing multinationals
in coming months.
Francois Christophe is senior intelligence analyst, Africa with
iJET International
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2016 11:36 ET (15:36 GMT)
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