More Capital Raising Coming for European Banks?
September 25 2015 - 8:20AM
Dow Jones News
Two big European banks face a painful choice in the coming
weeks: whether to tap shareholders for funds despite plummeting
share prices.
Standard Chartered PLC and Credit Suisse Group AG are
considering raising equity, according to analysts and people
familiar with the matter. The moves come as regulators continue to
pressure banks to shore up their balance sheets as European growth
remains muted, commodity prices crash and Asia slows.
Both banks recently appointed new chief executives who are
reviewing their strategies, potentially paving the way for cash
calls. But the timing for issuing equity is far from ideal. Markets
continue to seesaw and many European bank stocks have dropped in
value over the year with the Euro Stoxx European banks index down
15%. Banks have boosted their buffers but it is still unclear how
much more capital regulators want them to hold, said Edward Firth,
head of European bank research at Macquarie Group. Those at "the
bottom of the pile are always under focus," he said.
Standard Chartered is among the European banks most exposed to
both China and commodities. The Bank of England is completing a
balance sheet health check, with results set to be presented in
December. Some analysts expect Standard Chartered, under recently
appointed Chief Executive Bill Winters, to tap shareholders ahead
of the stress test results. The bank could raise as much as $8
billion, says Joseph Dickerson, an analyst at Jefferies Group.
Mr. Winters wants to avoid going down that path, according to
people familiar with the matter. Standard Chartered's share price
has tanked 45% over the last 12 months, meaning existing stock
could be heavily diluted by any share issuance. "If we decide we
need capital for the long-term benefit of the Group, we will raise
capital. If we decide we don't need it, we won't," said Mr. Winters
during the bank's half-year results in August. The bank could cut
its dividend or sell parts of its business instead, analysts say. A
Standard Chartered spokesman declined to comment.
Another bank being closely watched is Credit Suisse. The Swiss
bank's new chief executive, Tidjane Thiam, could announce a capital
hike during a public briefing scheduled for Oct. 21, says Kepler
Cheuvreux analyst Dirk Becker. That may be anywhere from 2.3
billion Swiss francs ($2.36 billion) to 15.2 billion francs, says
Mr. Becker. A small increase is unlikely to upset investors but
won't do much to cheer them, either—however a big hike coupled with
a bold strategic move such as a large acquisition may actually move
the stock higher, the analyst said. Shares of Credit Suisse have
fallen around 17% since August. The potential hike comes as Swiss
authorities consider tightening regulatory rules for Credit Suisse
and Zurich-based rival UBS Group AG, both of which run sizable
investment banks. A spokeswoman for Credit Suisse declined to
comment.
With the recent market turmoil some big banks are opting to sell
chunks of their businesses or cut dividends rather than to issue
shares. Deutsche Bank AG, which has tapped shareholders twice for
fundraising since 2013, plans to sell businesses, including the
mass retail-banking unit Postbank, exit countries and shrink its
investment bank. Deutsche Bank Chief Executive John Cryan said in
July that raising capital wasn't in the interest of shareholders.
Spain's Banco Santander SA this week said it would further boost
its capital levels following a €7.5 billion ($8.42 billion) equity
raise in January. Bank executives also said they would continue to
cut costs and analysts expect it to also sell underperforming
units.
Banks could save face with investors by issuing debt instead.
The market may be flooded this year with bonds that convert into
equity in times of stress, says Chirantan Barua, an analyst at
Bernstein Research.
Write to Max Colchester at max.colchester@wsj.com and John
Letzing at john.letzing@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 25, 2015 08:05 ET (12:05 GMT)
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