("Navistar Affirms FY '11 Outlook; Sees Most Profit Coming In Q4" at 3:27 p.m. Wednesday incorrectly stated analysts' third quarter and fourth quarter consensus earnings. The corrected version follows.") -- Navistar reiterates fiscal 2011 earnings of $5.50-$6 per share. -- Company expects bulk of the full-year profits in fourth-quarter. -- Navistar lowers its North American market share forecast for heavy-duty trucks. By Bob Tita Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES Commercial truck maker Navistar International Corp. (NAV) reaffirmed its fiscal 2011 earnings guidance from June, but sees the bulk of its profit coming in the fourth quarter. Chairman and Chief Executive Dan Ustian predicted Wednesday that profit will come in at the "high end" of the company's range of $5.50 to $6 per share for the fiscal year ending Oct. 31. The Illinois company raised the bottom end of the range to $5.50 from $5 when it reported second-quarter results June 7. Ustian said much of the full-year income will be crammed into the fiscal fourth quarter, which is typically the company's best period of the year. For the first six months of the fiscal year, Navistar reported a profit of $94 million, or $1.22 per share, before one-time charges. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Navistar to earn $1.58 a share for the fiscal third quarter ended July 31, with $2.86 a share coming in the fourth quarter. "We'll be even more weighted than that to the fourth quarter," Ustian said during remarks at a Jefferies & Co. investor conference in New York. "We're going to be back-end loaded in the fourth quarter." Ustian said production of heavy-duty trucks is being held down by widespread shortages of parts and components that are affecting the entire truck industry. Of the components that Navistar has been receiving from suppliers, Ustian revealed the company has been allocating higher volumes for trucks being built for the Latin American market where the Navistar's profit margins are higher than on North American market trucks. The supply chain bottlenecks and the shift in components to Latin America prompted Ustian to lowered the company's North American market share goal for heavy-duty truck to 23% to 24% from the company's earlier target of 25% by the end of the year. The lower market share goal for North America confirms what some analysts have already been forecasting, particularly as Navistar transitions from using heavy-duty engines built by Cummins Inc. (CMI) to Navistar-built engines. Demand for commercial trucks in North America has been rebounding this year following a prolonged slump in truck sales. Market forecasters see sales continuing to accelerate in 2012 as trucking companies replace older vehicles and expand their fleets. Despite the weakness lately in the U.S. economy, Ustian said truck buyers remain optimistic that freight volumes will support an increase in truck purchases next year. "They feel very bullish about where the market is going," he said. "We haven't seen any pullback or cancellation in orders. Next year is going to be an even better year than this year." Navistar's military truck business remains on course to deliver revenue of about $1.9 billion this year. But Ustian noted the revenue flow will be concentrated in the fourth quarter. He predicted military revenue of about $330 million for the third quarter rising to about $700 million in the fourth quarter. - -By Bob Tita, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4129; robert.tita@dowjones.com
