DALLAS, June 1, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
Texas Economic Activity Index declined slightly in March, down 0.2
percentage points to a level of 91.9. March's reading is 19 points,
or 26 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.8. The index
averaged 97.7 points for all of 2015, seven and three-fifths points
below the average for full-year 2014. February's index reading was
92.1.
"Our Texas Economic Activity Index declined again in March, down
for 16 out of the last 17 months. Weakness in the index stems from
the reset to the Texas oil and gas
industry due to very low commodity prices. In recent weeks, we have
seen some firming in both crude oil and natural gas prices. If the
current price regime is stable, with oil near $50 per barrel, then we would expect drilling rig
counts to stabilize this year, and that overall business investment
in crude oil and natural gas projects will stabilize, too, by year
end. We already see in our Texas Index a slower rate of decline
through the first three months of 2016, compared with the second
half of 2015. Five out of eight index components were positive for
March, including nonfarm employment, exports, unemployment
insurance claims (inverted), house prices and state sales tax,"
said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at
Comerica Bank. "Negative index components for March were housing
starts, rig count and hotel occupancy."
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables,
as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, hotel occupancy rates,
continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, sales
tax revenues, home prices, and the Baker Hughes rotary rig count.
All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a
base year of 2008. Nominal values have been converted to constant
dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month
moving averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in
Texas, strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to 131 banking
centers in Dallas/Fort Worth,
Houston, Austin, San
Antonio and Kerrville
regions of Texas, Comerica Bank
locations can be found in Arizona,
California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/economics. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank