TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- While economic
predictions are not hard to come by, the credibility and reputation
of the nation's top economists are built on the accuracy of their
commentary and modeling. Robert A.
Dye, senior vice president and chief economist at Comerica
Bank, has had the most accurate U.S. economic forecasts among the
nation's top economists for the years 2011 to 2014. Accordingly, he
will be honored Oct. 14 at a ceremony
at the University Club in New York
with the prestigious Lawrence R.
Klein Award for his achievements.
"I am honored to be the recipient of an award named after
Lawrence Klein, one of the most
prominent and influential economists of our time," said Dye.
"Providing accurate forecasts over a year is challenging enough. To
do so over four years tells me that I have done my job well on
behalf of Comerica Bank's customers and colleagues."
Dye beat out about 50 competitors for this year's award which is
sponsored and judged by the W. P. Carey School of Business at
Arizona State University.
"To come out on top in this competition, the forecasters had to
deal with four years of volatility in GDP data as well as a steady
drop in unemployment rates," said Economics Professor Dennis Hoffman, director of the L. William
Seidman Research Institute at the W. P. Carey School of Business.
"Robert Dye was on the mark with
those two indicators, but what really separated him from the pack
were his CPI forecasts. He saw that inflation was going to stay
low, when many analysts expected CPI to flare up."
Dye will deliver his 2016 forecast, "The Transitional Economy:
Crosscurrents and Volatility," at the invitation-only event, which
will include the following predictions:
- The U.S. economy is transitioning through its mid-cycle phase
buffeted by global events
- A moderate GDP expansion continues through 2016, fueled by a
strengthening consumer sector and increased government
spending
- The U.S. unemployment rate will fall below five percent by
early 2016, averaging 4.6 percent for 2016
- Housing markets continue to firm up, driven by gains in new and
existing home sales and increased residential construction
- Headwinds for U.S. manufacturing will increase through 2016
because of the strong dollar and decreased demand from the energy
sector
- Oil prices will stay low, helping U.S. consumers, but weighing
on the economies of oil producing areas
The Lawrence R. Klein Award is
one of the longest-standing and well-known awards in the economics
profession. The annual award is named for the late Nobel Prize
winner Dr. Lawrence Klein and is
presented to the individual or team with the most accurate economic
forecast among the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey
participants for a four-year period.
Top industry professionals and others will attend the
invitation-only award ceremony October
14 at the University Club in New
York, starting at 6 p.m. VIPs
expected to be in attendance include Randell E. Moore, executive editor of the
Blue Chip Economic Indicators; Amy
Hillman, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business;
Hannah Klein, daughter of the award
namesake; and Trevor Bond, president
and chief executive officer of W. P. Carey Inc. (NYSE: WPC).
Maurine Haver, president and founder
of Haver Analytics, will present the award to Dye.
Dye provides commentary and research on the U.S. economy and the
economies of California,
Texas, Arizona, Florida and Michigan – Comerica's primary markets.
He also publishes a monthly U.S. economic update and quarterly
regional economic updates targeting 12 key metropolitan statistical
areas within Comerica's footprint. His other regular publications
include state-level economic indexes, daily economic alerts and the
Comerica Economic Weekly. He is a former director of the National
Association of Business Economics and is a member of the Economic
Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
W. P. CAREY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona
State University is one of the top-ranked and largest
business schools in the United
States. The school is internationally regarded for its
research productivity and its distinguished faculty members,
including a Nobel Prize winner. Students come from more than 100
countries and include over 50 National Merit Scholars. For more
information, please visit www.wpcarey.asu.edu and
www.knowwpcarey.com.
COMERICA INCORPORATED
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA) is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in
Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of
$69.9 billion at June 30, 2015. To follow Comerica Chief Economist
Robert Dye on Twitter, go to
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE W. P. Carey School of Business and Comerica Bank